Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Description
Despite stable remittances and robust tourism growth, we have lowered our 2026 real GDP growth forecast for The Gambia by 0.1 ppt to 4.1%. The current 2025/26 groundnut harvest (December 1 to March 31) promises to be a marked improvement on the 2024/25 harvest, boosting export earnings. However, a higher probability of below-average rainfall this year is expected to lead to a poor cereal harvest, which would have a significant negative impact on private consumption expenditure – a major contributor to national GDP.
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