Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea

Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea



We kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 2.4%. We expect sequential GDP will pick up in the following quarters from a soft Q2 outturn. AI-fuelled exports will be the main source of dynamism in the economy as domestic demand momentum remains subdued. We see downside risks to our 2.2% GDP growth forecast for 2025, should the semiconductor cycle turn before we expect due to weaker global demand.


South Korea: Bank of Korea's easing cycle start is imminent
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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