We kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 2.4%. We expect sequential GDP will pick up in the following quarters from a soft Q2 outturn. AI-fuelled exports will be the main source of dynamism in the economy as domestic demand momentum remains subdued. We see downside risks to our 2.2% GDP growth forecast for 2025, should the semiconductor cycle turn before we expect due to weaker global demand.
South Korea: Bank of Korea's easing cycle start is imminent