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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Aug 14, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20317570

Description

We raised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 1.7%, but lowered it by the same magnitude to 2% for 2026 because our August baseline incorporated refinements to the assumptions about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Changes to our tariff assumptions didn't significantly alter our near-term forecasts for GDP or inflation. We continue to believe the Federal Reserve's next rate cut will occur in December, but odds of a September cut have risen.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
US: New tariffs haven't significantly altered our forecast
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Policy
Politics

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