We revised our FY2025 (1st July 2025 - 30th June 2026) GDP forecast for Tonga up by 0.1ppt to 2.57% growth, considering significant national accounts revisions pointing towards a stronger-than-expected rebound after Covid and the 2022 volcanic eruption and tsunami. While US tariffs will have a limited direct impact on Tonga due to the few goods exported to the US, the expected global slowdown poses a risk to tourism and remittance receipts, dampening growth prospects.
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