Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon

Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon

High-frequency data underscore the continued decline in Lebanon's economy, though there are tentative signs of an improvement in momentum. The May PMI survey climbed to the highest level since 2016; that said, it remains below the neutral 50-mark, indicating weak demand. Moreover, business sentiment remains downbeat in the face of an uncertain post-election reform climate. Consequently, we have pushed back our expectations for recovery, lowering our 2022 GDP forecast to 0.3%, down from 0.9% previously.


Lebanon: An uncertain reform climate post-election set to delay recovery
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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