Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Bahrain's economy is set to accelerate in 2025, propelled by an oil sector recovery and the sustained growth of non-oil industries, especially financial services, manufacturing, and tourism. We predict real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2025, decreasing to 2.2% in 2026. We expect non-oil GDP growth to i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Following an update to historical figures, our 2025 real GDP growth forecast of 2.7% is little changed from the previous round and remains lower than the IMF's projection of 3.5%. That said, we still anticipate a slowdown in Chad's economic growth this year due to lower oil prices. Domestic ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
We slightly revised our below-consensus growth forecast for Hong Kong down to 1.9%, following 2.5% export-driven growth last year. This revision reflects our assessment of the recent tenuous global trade environment. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
We've increased our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.2ppts to 2.0%, given evidence that the economy was still expanding above the long-term trend in Q1. In 2024, the economy grew by 4.1%, but this year, tight monetary policy and a more restrictive fiscal stance will gradually dampen grow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
We have revised Taiwan's 2025 inflation forecast up to 1.9% from 1.7% to reflect the impact of the anticipated price hikes in public transportation and utilities. Although we've adjusted our year-end policy rate forecast to 1.875% from 1.625% prior, we continue to believe that emerging downs ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Argentina by 0.3ppts to 3.9% but lowered our projection for 2026 by 0.5ppts to 2.6%. The 2025 revision reflects strong consumption momentum in Q1, while the 2026 cut is due to base effects. The threat of droughts due to the La Niña weather patte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
We've maintained our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 2.8%. Still, we acknowledge that the risks are shifting to the downside due to a worsening outlook for the external sector. With momentum set to slow, the Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to ease policy again. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uzbekistan
We maintain our forecast of 5.9% GDP growth for Uzbekistan this year and expect growth to slow only marginally to 5.8% in 2026. We think activity will remain supported by strong exports and robust domestic consumption. Ongoing structural reforms and solid domestic demand will keep the rate of expans ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Senegal has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons. A certified report on an audit of the country's fiscal finances in February found that Senegal's fiscal position is much weaker than what official data suggests. This revelation halted IMF payouts under the current arrangement and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
According to the Congolese central bank, the economy expanded by 7.9% last year, beating our (5.8%) and the International Monetary Fund's (4.7%) predictions. Even so, we think annual growth will switch to a lower gear over the medium term due to smaller expansions in mining, while the conflict i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Recent data suggest Malaysia's economy had a better start to 2025 after a soft end to 2024. We have upgraded our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 4.1%, following a 5.1% expansion in 2024. But shifting base effects mask slightly stronger momentum over this year. Alongside growing inflationary r ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
Based on the latest quarterly data, the Maltese economy entered a recession in H2 2024, contracting by 0.6% q/q in Q3 and by 0.7% q/q in Q4. Data revisions have significantly influenced this outcome and there may be more to come. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We kept our growth forecast for Italy to 0.4% this year and 0.7% in 2026. GDP growth was 0.1% in Q4 2024, marginally above the poor reading for Q3. We assume the US will hit Europe with 10% tariffs. Fiscal policy remains a drag, although we assume an increase in military spending over the medium ter ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
We've maintained our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 2.5%, the same slow pace as in 2024, and foresee a soft pick-up to 2.7% growth in 2026. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Preliminary activity indicators for Q1 hint at a continued slowdown in Brazil's GDP growth from Q4. We haven't changed our below-consensus forecast of 1.2% for 2025, but risks now tilt to the downside. Manufacturing and services output growth remained frail in January, and sentiment data for ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
We no longer expect an industrial production recovery in 2025, with industrial value-added growth forecast at just 0.2%, a 1.8ppt downward revision from our Q4 2024 update. Weak domestic demand has delayed the rebound, while structural challenges, like the erosion of EU competitiveness and rising co ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
A solid end of 2024 set the stage for the Greek economy to grow at a faster pace than the Eurozone average in 2025, as we project GDP will expand by 2.1%. Investments remain the main driver of growth, boosted by the Next Generation EU funds. Net exports dragged on the economy in 2024, but this shoul ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Industrial growth in China surpassed expectations at the end of last year, but we expect it to peter out over the coming quarters. Strong momentum going into the year has led us to revise up our industrial value-added growth forecast to 4.0% in 2025, up from 3.6% in our Q4 2024 update. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - France
While the overall trend of industrial production has remained relatively flat since the initial recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect this year to see a broad decline in industrial output this year. GDP growth forecast has also been lowered to 0.5% for 2025 as global trade uncertainty weigh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Germany's parliament passed a massive fiscal package last week. We'll revise our March baseline views to reflect the extra spending on defence and infrastructure in our April forecast round. Upward revisions could see GDP growth peak at 2.6% in 2027 and average 1.8% over the next four years, ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Canada
We now expect industrial value-added output in Canada to contract by 1.5% in 2025. The US-Canada trade war is likely to plunge Canada’s economy into a deep recession that will continue into 2026. We expect a 25% tariff on nearly all imports of goods from Canada to take effect in April. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
We have made substantial downgrades to our forecast for German industry and now expect a significantly slower pace of growth over the next 2 years. A cyclical component—weak domestic demand—is an important factor that has pushed back the recovery. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
Even though the security situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) remains fragile, the economy is proving to be relatively resilient, underpinned by elevated gold prices and continued support from the IMF. Against this backdrop, we forecast real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025. Downside risks to o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast for Ireland to 3.1% from 2.2% last month, but cut our 2026 forecast to 2.5% from 3.3%. Final official figures for Q4 2024 GDP growth were a substantial upward revision, resulting in a much-improved carryover effect into 2025. While this explains our upgraded fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The US isn't in nor at immediate risk of stagflation, which is economically debilitating. There are a few conditions that need to be met before we would consider the economy near or in stagflation. ... Read More
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