Category: Heavy Industry
Heavy Industry market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s new finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, will present the 2025 Budget to Parliament on March 11. This will mark the first full-year budget under the new Mahama administration, following a GHȼ68bn provisional budget approved in January for first-quarter government spending. In February, an I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 4.7%, driven entirely by the latest OPEC+ agreement to gradually unwind production cuts starting in Q2. Although oil prices remain under pressure, the increase in production will support growth in the oil sector, particularly as the UAE continue ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Flash PMIs for February showed a divergence between Germany, where activity improved, and France, which fell deeper into contraction territory. The Eurozone composite PMI was unchanged – near stagnation. We revised down our forecasts for industrial production, as Europe finds itself squeezed between ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 202 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
We are cautiously optimistic that Nigeria will enjoy a more favourable macroeconomic climate this year. Real GDP growth is projected to increase marginally to 3.1% this year from an estimated 3.0% in 2024 while remaining relatively flat over the medium term. The non-oil economy will be a growth driv ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've maintained our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran at 3.0%. However, we've cut the forecast for FY2025 to 2.3% from 2.5% previously, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic demand as a result of the newly announced FY2025 budget ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Solomon Islands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Solomon Islands We have revised up our 2024 GDP growth forecast for the Solomon Islands by 0.1ppts to 2.3%, still below the Asia Pacific average of 3.9%. We expect similar levels of growth through 2025, as large infrastructure projects outlined in the Solomon' ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Data releases this week show that eurozone momentum remains weak. The October composite PMI is still in contractionary territory, though marginally. France's composite PMI deteriorated over the month, whereas Germany posted a gain for the first time since May. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Despite a small respite from positive German industrial production numbers in August, most economic indicators in Europe continue to point to a persistent lack of momentum. Near-term prospects remain muted, as Europe's largest economy remains mired in a slump. ... Read More
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