Semi-Autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market by Level of Automation (Level 1, Level 2 & 3, Level 4, and Level 5), Propulsion (Diesel, Electric, and Hybrid), Application, ADAS Features, Sensor, and Region - Global Forecast to 2030
“The increasing need for passenger and pedestrian safety, efficient public transport, reduction in CO2 emission, and government regulations related to safety features to drive the global semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market.”
The global semi-autonomous bus market size is projected to reach 71,682 units by 2025, from an estimated 23,613 units in 2020, at a CAGR of 24.9%. On the other hand, the global autonomous bus market size is projected to reach USD 2,773 million by 2030, from USD 791 million in 2024, at a CAGR of 23.2%. The advent of autonomous technology will have a significant impact on commercial vehicles, including buses.
The entry of autonomous buses in the automotive industry will change the way public transport is done across the world. The autonomous bus technology enhances safety, efficiency, and productivity. Autonomous buses can help decrease the number of road accidents significantly, thus increasing road safety in different scenarios or conditions. These vehicles follow the traffic rules and keep a distance from other vehicles. In this way, these vehicles would help decrease traffic congestion and increase efficiency and productivity.
The effective first-mile to last-mile commuting would drive the autonomous shuttle segment in the forecast.”
The shuttle segment is expected to dominate the autonomous bus market, as these are already commercialized. Many companies such as Navya, EasyMile, and Local Motors have developed self-driving shuttles. Successful pilot programs of autonomous shuttles across the world are indicating that shuttles could be a practical solution to the gaps in traditional public transport. For instance, EasyMile, a French autonomous shuttle provider, claims to have deployed the most number of such shuttles globally than any other company. Also, Navya, 2getthere, Local Motors, and Sensible4 are some of the companies that have developed, tested, and are offering autonomous shuttles. On the other hand, commercialization of intercity or intracity buses would take time due to challenges such as highway operation, long-distance, city traffic, lack of infrastructure (intracity coaches might require separate lane in the city and highway conditions), and government regulations.
“Asia Pacific is expected to be the fastest-growing market during the forecast period”
The Asia Pacific region comprises countries, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, which have a technologically advanced automotive industry. The Chinese bus company, King Long, developed a self-driving shuttle with the autonomous platform by Baidu and started first-ever volume production of these shuttles in June 2018. As China, Japan, and South Korea are capable of adopting such technology and produce on mass-level, the region will have a significant market share in the autonomous bus market. Apart from these testing and trials, the region is heavily dependent on buses as a public transport medium. Thus, recent developments in autonomous technologies and quick adoption of the technology would help the Asia Pacific market to grow rapidly.
“North America is expected to be the largest market in the forecast period”
The North American region is projected to account for the largest share of the semi-autonomous bus market during the forecast period. It is home to OEMs, such as New Flyer, Gillig, Novabus, Bluebird, Thomas Built Buses, and Proterra, that are offering advanced buses in the region. The region is dominated by modern buses having ADAS features as standard or optional. OEMs in the country have been providing many semi-autonomous driving features such as AEB, BSD, and ACC. Also, the region is home to many technology companies that are exploring the autonomous driving technology with testing and trials across the region.
In-depth interviews were conducted with CEOs, marketing directors, other innovation and technology directors, and executives from various key organizations operating in this market.
By Company Type: Tier I - 40%, Tier II - 42%, and Tier III - 18%
By Designation: C Level - 57%, D Level - 29%, and Others - 14%
By Region: North America - 39%, Europe - 33%, and Asia Pacific - 28%
The semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market comprises major manufacturers such as Continental (Germany) Bosch (Germany), Aptiv (UK), AB Volvo (Sweden), and Denso (Japan).
The market study covers the semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market size and future growth potential across different segments such as by propulsion type, application, ADAS feature, sensor, level of automation, and region. The study also includes an in-depth competitive analysis of the key players in the market, along with their company profiles, key observations related to product and business offerings, recent developments, and key market strategies.
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