Autonomous Vehicles - Thematic Research
The global automobile industry - worth $3.5 trillion in annual revenues - faces four concurrent disruptive threats: the connected car, the electric vehicle, autonomous driving technology and the concept of transport-as-a-service. Each threat is potentially existential to the legacy carmakers who operate in a low growth, low margin sector that rattles with over capacity, and which is seeing its supply lines reset by cumulative advances in enabling technologies typically deployed by the Tier 1 automobile sub-system suppliers.
By 2021, the motor majors, such as GM, Volvo, Daimler, BMW and Ford, will run ride hailing services alongside Didi Chuxing, Uber, Grab, Ola and others, with Google Waymo leading the way with an autonomous commercial taxi service this year in Chandler, Arizona.
The advances in automobile technology will be remorseless and will almost totally reset the industry’s supply lines and value chains within five years.
On a 10-year view, the macro socio-economic effects of urban millennial and Generation Z attitudes towards car ownership and mobility will have a dramatic effect and yield a motor industry largely based on selling ‘rides’, increasingly deploying autonomous mobility, and ‘monetising’ miles: an emergent industry that will probably be as large as today’s automotive industry.
Companies mentioned in this report: Alphabet, Apple, Aptiv, Aurora, Autoliv, BAIC, Baidu, BMW, Broadcom, Byd, Continental, Cambricon, Daimler, Delphi Tech, Denso, Didi Chuxing, Embark, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, Geely, GKN, GM, Great Wall, Honda, Infineon, Intel, Joyson, Lyft, Mahindra, NIO, Nissan, Nvidia, NXP, Qualcomm, SAIC Motor, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Suzuki, Tata Motors, Tenneco, Tesla, Toyota, Tung Thih, Uber, Valeo, Velodyne, Volkswagen
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