Medium Duty Trucks

Global Medium Duty Trucks Market to Reach US$138.8 Billion by 2030

The global market for Medium Duty Trucks estimated at US$106.1 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$138.8 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.6% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Class 4, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 4.8% CAGR and reach US$79.8 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Class 5 segment is estimated at 4.6% CAGR over the analysis period.

The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$28.9 Billion While China is Forecast to Grow at 8.3% CAGR

The Medium Duty Trucks market in the U.S. is estimated at US$28.9 Billion in the year 2024. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$28.8 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 8.3% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% and 3.6% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 2.7% CAGR.

Global Medium-duty Trucks Market – Key Trends & Drivers Summarized

What Makes Medium-Duty Trucks the Backbone of Urban and Regional Logistics?
Medium-duty trucks, typically classified in the range of Classes 4 to 7 and weighing between 14,001 to 33,000 pounds, have emerged as critical assets for urban and regional transportation networks. Unlike their light-duty or heavy-duty counterparts, medium-duty trucks strike a perfect balance between payload capacity and maneuverability, making them ideally suited for last-mile delivery, municipal services, food and beverage distribution, and vocational applications such as utility maintenance, construction, and refuse collection. With the explosion of e-commerce and just-in-time delivery models, businesses are increasingly investing in medium-duty fleets to manage growing urban logistics volumes efficiently. These trucks play a pivotal role in sectors where agility within congested city routes, coupled with sufficient cargo capacity, is paramount. Fleet operators prefer medium-duty trucks for their versatility, fuel efficiency, and adaptability to diverse body types—from refrigerated vans to flatbeds and dump trucks. Moreover, advancements in telematics and fleet management solutions are enabling real-time route optimization, diagnostics, and preventive maintenance scheduling, further enhancing uptime and operational efficiency. As urbanization intensifies and smart city planning advances, demand for these vehicles is expected to surge, driven by infrastructure upgrades and investments in regional distribution hubs that prioritize accessibility and load optimization.

How Is the Shift Toward Electrification Reshaping the Medium-Duty Truck Landscape?
The transition to zero-emission transportation is transforming the dynamics of the medium-duty truck segment, with electric medium-duty trucks gaining momentum across key markets. Government mandates, stringent emissions regulations, and low-emission zones in major cities are prompting fleet owners to replace or retrofit diesel fleets with electric alternatives. Leading OEMs and startups are introducing electric medium-duty truck models tailored for urban routes with limited range requirements—typically between 100 to 200 miles per charge. These electric variants are not only quiet and emission-free but also significantly reduce total cost of ownership (TCO) by eliminating fuel expenses and reducing maintenance associated with internal combustion engines. Innovations in battery chemistry—such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and solid-state technologies—are improving energy density and vehicle range, while ultra-fast charging networks are making electric trucks more viable for day-long operations. Incentives such as purchase subsidies, tax credits, and preferential access to urban centers further incentivize adoption. Moreover, fleet electrification is being supported by data-driven route analysis and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration for energy optimization. This electric revolution is particularly pronounced in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia where policy frameworks, urban pollution concerns, and consumer pressure for sustainable logistics are reshaping procurement decisions and accelerating EV fleet deployments.

In What Ways Are Connectivity and Autonomy Enhancing Operational Efficiency?
Beyond powertrains, medium-duty trucks are undergoing a digital transformation powered by connectivity, automation, and data analytics. Telematics systems have become standard in modern fleets, allowing fleet managers to monitor vehicle location, driver behavior, fuel consumption, and predictive maintenance needs in real time. These systems contribute directly to reducing operational costs, improving safety metrics, and ensuring regulatory compliance. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) such as lane departure warnings, adaptive cruise control, collision mitigation, and 360-degree cameras are increasingly being incorporated into medium-duty trucks, aligning with safety regulations and reducing insurance premiums. Furthermore, OEMs are collaborating with tech companies to enable over-the-air (OTA) updates, enabling vehicles to receive performance enhancements, software patches, and compliance upgrades remotely. Autonomous driving technologies are also being tested in medium-duty platforms, particularly in controlled environments like logistics hubs and warehouses. While full autonomy remains a few years away, platooning and semi-autonomous features are gradually being deployed to improve fuel efficiency and reduce driver fatigue. The integration of blockchain for supply chain traceability, AI-based driver coaching platforms, and digital twins for vehicle diagnostics are redefining how fleets are operated and maintained, signaling a new era of intelligent, connected mobility.

What’s Fueling the Accelerated Growth of the Medium-Duty Trucks Market?
The growth in the medium-duty trucks market is driven by several factors rooted in technological progress, changing end-user demands, and evolving regulatory landscapes. One of the primary growth drivers is the rapid expansion of urban delivery and logistics services, catalyzed by the e-commerce boom and the need for timely fulfillment. Medium-duty trucks offer the ideal configuration for middle-mile and last-mile delivery services, prompting courier, retail, and distribution firms to expand their fleets. The growing demand for refrigerated transport solutions in food, pharmaceuticals, and cold chain logistics has also led to increased adoption of specialized medium-duty trucks. Electrification and fuel diversification are further accelerating market expansion, with compressed natural gas (CNG), hybrid, and electric models gaining traction among environmentally conscious fleet operators. Regulatory compliance related to emissions and road safety is prompting fleet upgrades, creating demand for vehicles equipped with the latest emissions technology and safety features. Additionally, the rise of leasing models and shared logistics platforms is making medium-duty trucks more accessible to SMEs and independent operators. Emerging economies, particularly in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are witnessing infrastructure development and urbanization, boosting demand for medium-duty vehicles tailored to construction, public works, and intercity transport. As OEMs expand their product offerings and tailor trucks to local market needs, the medium-duty truck market is positioned for sustained and robust growth globally.

SCOPE OF STUDY:

The report analyzes the Medium Duty Trucks market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:

Segments:
Class (Class 4, Class 5, Class 6); Fuel (Diesel, Natural Gas, Hybrid, Electric, Gasoline); Horsepower (Below 150 HP, 150 HP - 250 HP, Above 250 HP); Application (Construction & Mining, Freight & Logistics, Others)

Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; United States; Canada; Japan; China; Europe (France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; Spain; Russia; and Rest of Europe); Asia-Pacific (Australia; India; South Korea; and Rest of Asia-Pacific); Latin America (Argentina; Brazil; Mexico; and Rest of Latin America); Middle East (Iran; Israel; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; and Rest of Middle East); and Africa.

Select Competitors (Total 48 Featured) -

• Ashok Leyland
• Daimler Truck AG
• FAW Group Corporation
• Ford Motor Company
• Freightliner Trucks
• Hino Motors, Ltd.
• Hyundai Motor Company
• Isuzu Motors Limited
• Iveco Group N.V.
• Kenworth Truck Company
• Mack Trucks, Inc.
• MAN Truck & Bus SE
• Navistar International Corp.
• Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.
• Paccar Inc.
• Peterbilt Motors Company
• Scania AB
• Tata Motors Limited
• Toyota Motor Corporation
• Volvo Trucks

TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR

Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.

We are diligently following expert opinions of leading Chief Economists (14,949), Think Tanks (62), Trade & Industry bodies (171) worldwide, as they assess impact and address new market realities for their ecosystems. Experts and economists from every major country are tracked for their opinions on tariffs and how they will impact their countries.

We expect this chaos to play out over the next 2-3 months and a new world order is established with more clarity. We are tracking these developments on a real time basis.

As we release this report, U.S. Trade Representatives are pushing their counterparts in 183 countries for an early closure to bilateral tariff negotiations. Most of the major trading partners also have initiated trade agreements with other key trading nations, outside of those in the works with the United States. We are tracking such secondary fallouts as supply chains shift.

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APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE

Our April release addresses the impact of tariffs on the overall global market and presents market adjustments by geography. Our trajectories are based on historic data and evolving market impacting factors.

JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET

Complimentary Update: Our clients will also receive a complimentary update in July after a final reset is announced between nations. The final updated version incorporates clearly defined Tariff Impact Analyses.

Reciprocal and Bilateral Trade & Tariff Impact Analyses:

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INDIA
176 OTHER COUNTRIES.

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