Food and Grocery Retail

Global Food and Grocery Retail Market to Reach US$26.9 Trillion by 2030

The global market for Food and Grocery Retail estimated at US$23.9 Trillion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$26.9 Trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.0% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Fresh Food, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 2.2% CAGR and reach US$7.7 Trillion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Frozen Food segment is estimated at 2.0% CAGR over the analysis period.

The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$6.5 Trillion While China is Forecast to Grow at 4.0% CAGR

The Food and Grocery Retail market in the U.S. is estimated at US$6.5 Trillion in the year 2024. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$5.1 Trillion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 4.0% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 0.7% and 1.5% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 1.0% CAGR.

Global Food & Grocery Retail Market – Key Trends & Drivers Summarized

How Is the Food & Grocery Retail Market Evolving in the Digital Age?
The food and grocery retail market is undergoing a transformative shift, driven by digitalization, evolving consumer preferences, and innovations in supply chain management. The increasing demand for convenience, sustainability, and online shopping has redefined how consumers purchase food and essential goods. Retailers are adapting by integrating e-commerce solutions, offering personalized shopping experiences, and optimizing inventory management through advanced data analytics.

One of the most significant changes in the industry is the rise of omnichannel retailing. Consumers now expect seamless transitions between online and offline shopping, prompting retailers to enhance their digital presence while maintaining strong physical store operations. The expansion of click-and-collect services, home delivery options, and automated checkout systems has further revolutionized the sector. Additionally, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are enabling retailers to predict consumer demand, manage supply chains more efficiently, and enhance the overall shopping experience.

What Market Trends Are Shaping the Future of Food & Grocery Retail?
The increasing dominance of e-commerce and quick commerce is one of the most influential trends in the market. Online grocery shopping has surged, fueled by changing consumer habits, improved digital infrastructure, and the demand for contactless delivery services. The rise of quick-commerce platforms, which promise ultra-fast delivery of grocery items within minutes, has intensified competition, pushing retailers to invest in micro-fulfillment centers and last-mile delivery innovations.

Another key trend is the growing emphasis on sustainability and ethical sourcing. Consumers are increasingly prioritizing organic, locally sourced, and environmentally friendly products. Retailers are responding by expanding their organic food offerings, reducing plastic packaging, and adopting carbon-neutral supply chain practices. Initiatives such as zero-waste grocery stores, reusable packaging programs, and sustainable sourcing certifications are gaining traction, influencing purchasing decisions.

The use of AI, big data, and automation in food and grocery retail is also transforming the industry. Retailers are leveraging predictive analytics to forecast demand, optimize pricing strategies, and enhance inventory management. Automated checkout systems, smart shelves, and digital price tags are improving efficiency and reducing operational costs. Additionally, the integration of blockchain technology is enhancing transparency in the food supply chain, allowing consumers to trace product origins and verify sustainability claims.

Which Regions Are Leading in Food & Grocery Retail Innovation?
North America and Europe remain the dominant markets for food and grocery retail, driven by advanced e-commerce infrastructure, strong consumer demand for convenience, and high penetration of digital payment systems. The United States and Canada have witnessed significant growth in online grocery sales, with major retailers investing in hybrid models that combine traditional shopping with digital solutions. In Europe, sustainability initiatives, organic food trends, and regulatory policies promoting ethical sourcing are shaping the industry’s future.

Asia-Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing market, fueled by rapid urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and increasing internet penetration. China, India, and Southeast Asian countries are experiencing a boom in online grocery retail, with major e-commerce giants expanding their grocery delivery services. The region’s adoption of mobile payments and AI-driven personalized shopping experiences is setting new benchmarks for retail efficiency and consumer engagement.

Latin America and the Middle East are also witnessing steady growth, driven by expanding supermarket chains, digital payment adoption, and growing middle-class populations. While traditional brick-and-mortar stores remain dominant, the rise of digital grocery platforms and mobile-based shopping solutions is reshaping the retail landscape in these regions.

The Growth in the Food & Grocery Retail Market Is Driven by Several Factors
The increasing reliance on digital transformation is a primary driver of market growth, as retailers embrace e-commerce, AI-powered analytics, and automation to enhance efficiency and customer experience. The integration of smart retail solutions, such as cashier-less stores and personalized digital promotions, is further elevating consumer engagement.

Sustainability and ethical sourcing are also key factors fueling industry expansion. With growing environmental awareness, retailers are focusing on reducing food waste, implementing circular economy models, and promoting sustainable farming practices. These initiatives align with changing consumer expectations and regulatory frameworks emphasizing corporate responsibility.

Additionally, the rise of convenience-driven shopping behaviors, fueled by urbanization and changing lifestyles, is reshaping food and grocery retail. The demand for ready-to-eat meals, plant-based alternatives, and functional foods is pushing retailers to diversify product offerings and enhance supply chain agility. The adoption of AI-driven inventory management and real-time demand forecasting is enabling retailers to stay ahead of shifting market dynamics.

With continued advancements in digitalization, sustainability initiatives, and evolving consumer preferences, the food and grocery retail market is poised for sustained growth. As technology-driven innovations and customer-centric strategies reshape the industry, retailers will need to adapt quickly to maintain a competitive edge in the global market.

SCOPE OF STUDY:

The report analyzes the Food and Grocery Retail market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:

Segments:
Product Type (Fresh Food, Frozen Food, Food Cupboard, Beverages, Cleaning & Household, Others); Distribution Channel (Supermarkets / Hypermarkets, Convenience Stores, Departmental Stores & Clubs, Online)

Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; United States; Canada; Japan; China; Europe (France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; Spain; Russia; and Rest of Europe); Asia-Pacific (Australia; India; South Korea; and Rest of Asia-Pacific); Latin America (Argentina; Brazil; Mexico; and Rest of Latin America); Middle East (Iran; Israel; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; and Rest of Middle East); and Africa.

Select Competitors (Total 32 Featured) -

• Aeon Co., Ltd.
• Ahold Delhaize
• Aldi
• Amazon.com, Inc.
• Auchan Retail
• Carrefour S.A.
• Costco Wholesale Corp.
• Edeka Zentrale AG & Co.
• Loblaw Companies Limited
• Mercadona
• Metro AG
• Publix Super Markets Inc.
• Rewe Group
• Sainsbury`s
• Schwarz Gruppe
• Seven & I Holdings Co.
• Tesco PLC
• The Kroger Co.
• Walmart Inc.
• Woolworths Group

TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR

Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.

We are diligently following expert opinions of leading Chief Economists (14,949), Think Tanks (62), Trade & Industry bodies (171) worldwide, as they assess impact and address new market realities for their ecosystems. Experts and economists from every major country are tracked for their opinions on tariffs and how they will impact their countries.

We expect this chaos to play out over the next 2-3 months and a new world order is established with more clarity. We are tracking these developments on a real time basis.

As we release this report, U.S. Trade Representatives are pushing their counterparts in 183 countries for an early closure to bilateral tariff negotiations. Most of the major trading partners also have initiated trade agreements with other key trading nations, outside of those in the works with the United States. We are tracking such secondary fallouts as supply chains shift.

To our valued clients, we say, we have your back. We will present a simplified market reassessment by incorporating these changes!

APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE

Our April release addresses the impact of tariffs on the overall global market and presents market adjustments by geography. Our trajectories are based on historic data and evolving market impacting factors.

JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET

Complimentary Update: Our clients will also receive a complimentary update in July after a final reset is announced between nations. The final updated version incorporates clearly defined Tariff Impact Analyses.

Reciprocal and Bilateral Trade & Tariff Impact Analyses:

USA
CHINA
MEXICO
CANADA
EU
JAPAN
INDIA
176 OTHER COUNTRIES.

Leading Economists - Our knowledge base tracks 14,949 economists including a select group of most influential Chief Economists of nations, think tanks, trade and industry bodies, big enterprises, and domain experts who are sharing views on the fallout of this unprecedented paradigm shift in the global econometric landscape. Most of our 16,491+ reports have incorporated this two-stage release schedule based on milestones.

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