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Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025–2028

Publisher Frost & Sullivan
Published Feb 27, 2025
SKU # MC19659566

Description

Global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States. This Frost & Sullivan macroeconomic thought leadership lays down potential US policy scenarios (including tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy) to establish forecasts for 2025 and 2028 for the global economy and the economies of the United States, China, Mexico, and the euro area.

In the baseline, Frost & Sullivan expects the impact on global GDP to remain muted between 2025 and 2028 mainly due to buoyant growth in key Asian emerging markets. In the pessimistic scenario, protracted trade wars could shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028. At the national level, in 2028, the United States' real GDP growth could slow to 2.0% in the baseline scenario and a meager 0.5% in the pessimistic scenario.

US trade and immigration regulations might exacerbate recessionary conditions in the Canadian and Mexican economies in 2025. For instance, the Mexican economy is forecast to face a 0.4% contraction in 2025 in the baseline and a 0.5% contraction in the pessimistic case.

The analysis includes long-term implications of the second Trump administration on the global economy and on the automotive, semiconductor, and oil and gas industries. Decision-makers and executives can leverage this thought leadership to make informed business and expansion decisions in the near to medium term in an era of elevated geopolitical tensions and persistent trade wars.

Table of Contents

Growth Opportunities: Research Scope
Scope of Analysis
Strategic Imperatives
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives of Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025–2028
Growth Opportunity Analysis
Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025–2028: Drivers and Restraints
Economic Metrics
Abbreviations
Ecosystem
Executive Orders—Immigration-Focused
Executive Orders—Energy and Climate-Focused
Executive Orders—Corporate Tax-Focused Measures
Growth Generator
Trump 2.0—Potential Policy Vision Scenarios
Trump 2.0 Policy Likelihood and Risk Impact Mapping
Key Macroeconomic Impact—Global
Key Macroeconomic Impact—United States
Key Macroeconomic Impact—China
Key Macroeconomic Impact—Mexico
Key Macroeconomic Impact—Euro Area
Trump 2.0 Long-Term Implications
Industry Impact Analysis
Automotive
Oil and Gas
Semiconductors
Growth Opportunity Universe
Growth Opportunity 1: Automotive
Growth Opportunity 2: Energy (Oil and Gas, Green Energy, and Nuclear Energy)
Growth Opportunity 3: High-Tech Industries (AI and Semiconductors)
Appendix & Next Steps
Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
List of Exhibits
Legal Disclaimer

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