Future Business Models of Autonomous Vehicle Services, 2030

Future Business Models of Autonomous Vehicle Services, 2030

OEMs, who have been traditionally maintaining industry leadership and also tight control over the ecosystem, have realized that the ongoing shift towards holistic mobility solutions presents a substantial threat to their position and dominance. They have also realized that the emergence of autonomous vehicles will not only disrupt the way we travel but also cause a major disruption to how players across the value chain operate.
In order for autonomous technology to be viable, it needs to have a profitable and sustainable business model. The key challenge is to develop a robust strategy after taking into account many challenges such as regulatory hurdles, lack of standardized road infrastructure, and low consumer confidence on autonomous technology. Despite all these challenges, there is a huge inflow of new entrants, especially the ones with no automotive background, and all of them agree that autonomous vehicles promise good profit margins while reducing operating expenses.

We at the Mobility team within Frost & Sullivan have published a report titled “Future Business Models of Autonomous Vehicle Services, 2019,” which aims to find answers to the challenges. The aim of this study is to research, analyze, and forecast the emerging autonomous services market at a global level and also assess the future growth and developments in the market.

Our research indicates that the autonomous vehicle service market is expected to grow from a mere $1.14 billion in 2019 to $202.51 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 60.1%, facilitated by mutually beneficial business models across the entire value chain. Among the various services, the mobility services market is expected to grow from $0.01 million in 2019 to $22.41 billion in 2030 showcasing the most drastic cluster for growth in the next decade.

Peripheral services which include services such as on-demand/user insurance, vehicle data services, and predictive maintenance together roughly amount to 55% – i.e., $110 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 78% from 2019. Vehicle services such as on-demand feature updates and parking services for autonomous vehicles will grow from a mere $0.20 billion in 2019 to $35.15 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 60.1%. The autonomous logistics market is expected to grow from a mere $0.74 billion in 2019 to $34.46 billion in 2030 at a CAGR of 41.7%, driven by consumers’ desire for faster delivery and their willingness to pay a premium for the same.


RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

define and understand the evolution of the autonomous services market.
give a detailed introduction of the global autonomous service market including value chain and business models, pricing models for mobility services, peripheral services, vehicle services, and logistic services.
provide an overview of the new business models likely to become popular among various autonomous service clusters.
estimate the market size of various autonomous services markets for the period from 2019 to 2030


  • Executive Summary
    • Highly Automated Vehicles (HAVs) Forecasts
    • Autonomous Driving (AD) Trends
    • AD Services
    • AD Services—Definitions
    • Key Findings
    • Impact of AD on Mobility Services
    • Impact of AD on Peripheral Services
    • Impact of AD on Vehicle Services
    • Impact of AD on Logistic Services
    • Summary of Business Models by AD Services
    • Summary of Autonomous Vehicle Services
    • Summary of Total Revenue Potential by AV Services
    • Key Conclusions
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • AD Services
    • AD Services—Definitions
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology
  • Definitions & Assumptions
    • SAE Definition for Various Levels of Automation by Use Case
    • Changes to SAE Definition—L5 to be Omni-operational
    • Definitions
    • Assumptions
  • Trends
    • Market Trends for AD
    • Market Trends
  • Mobility Services
    • AD Services
    • Existing Taxi Business Model
    • Autonomous Taxis—Value Chain and Future Business Model
    • Autonomous Taxis—Business Model Analysis
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Mobility Services–Autonomous Taxis Business Model Analysis, Global, 2018–2030
    • Autonomous Taxis—Pricing Model
    • Autonomous Taxis—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Mobility Services–Autonomous Taxis Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
    • AD Services
    • Autonomous Shuttles—Value Chain and Business Models
    • Autonomous Shuttles—Pricing Models
    • Autonomous Shuttles—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Mobility Services–Autonomous Shuttles Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
  • Peripheral Services
    • AD Services
    • On-Demand/User Insurance—Value Chain and Business Models
    • On-Demand/User Insurance—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Peripheral Services–On-Demand User Insurance Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
    • Case Study—Allianz Ventures
    • AD Services
    • Vehicle Data Services—Value Chain and Business Models
    • Vehicle Data Services—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Peripheral Services–Vehicle Data Services Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
    • AD Services
    • Predictive Auto Maintenance—Value Chain and Business Models
    • Predictive Auto Maintenance—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Peripheral Services–Predictive Auto Maintenance Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
  • Vehicle Services
    • AD Services
    • On-Demand Feature Updates—Business Model
    • On-Demand Feature Updates—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Vehicle Services–On-Demand Feature Updates Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
    • AD Services
    • Parking Services—Value Chain and Business Models
    • Parking Services—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Vehicle Services, Parking Services–Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
  • Logistics Services
    • AD Services
    • Autonomous Delivery—Value Chain and Business Models
    • Impact of AD on Logistic Services
    • Changing Demand in Goods Flow—Long Haul & Inter City Distribution
    • Logistic Services—Revenue Forecast
      • Table Autonomous Vehicle Services Business Model: Logistic Services Revenue Forecast, Global, 2018–2030
    • Case Study—Delivery Solutions into the City by DPDgroup
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity—Investments From and Partnerships Among OEMs/TSPs
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
  • Key Conclusions
    • The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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