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Venezuela Freight Transport Report 2016

Venezuela Freight Transport Report 2016

BMI View: We forecast most of the freight sector in Venezuela to come back to growth after two years of contraction for all freight modes.

Air freight is forecast to have another year of contraction before it comes back to positive growth in 2017.

Transport and infrastructure projects will be among the most vulnerable to being cut over the next year and have a negative affect on the industry overall.

Cuts to both capital and current spending will be given the country's heavy reliance on crude to fund its budget.

Enormous external and domestic headwinds will persist for Venezuela in 2016, weighing heavily on the Venezuelan economy and prolonging a severe recession.

We forecast that following estimated real GDP contractions of 2.5% in 2014 and 5.6% in 2015, the recession will stretch into its third year in 2016, when we forecast the economy will decline by 4.2%.

Marginal growth thereafter will depend on the return to more orthodox economic policies under a more business-friendly National Assembly following the December legislative elections.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Venezuela 2013-2019)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Conviasa
Petróleos de Venezuela Marina
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Venezuela - Private Consumption Forecasts
Table: Venezuela - Government Consumption Forecasts
Table: Venezuela - Fixed Investment Forecasts
Table: Venezuela - Net Exports Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook 2015
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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