Venezuela Freight Transport Report 2016
BMI View: We forecast most of the freight sector in Venezuela to come back to growth after two years of contraction for all freight modes.
Air freight is forecast to have another year of contraction before it comes back to positive growth in 2017.
Transport and infrastructure projects will be among the most vulnerable to being cut over the next year and have a negative affect on the industry overall.
Cuts to both capital and current spending will be given the country's heavy reliance on crude to fund its budget.
Enormous external and domestic headwinds will persist for Venezuela in 2016, weighing heavily on the Venezuelan economy and prolonging a severe recession.
We forecast that following estimated real GDP contractions of 2.5% in 2014 and 5.6% in 2015, the recession will stretch into its third year in 2016, when we forecast the economy will decline by 4.2%.
Marginal growth thereafter will depend on the return to more orthodox economic policies under a more business-friendly National Assembly following the December legislative elections.
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