Germany Freight Transport Report 2016
BMI View: We will continue to see growth in Germany's freight sector in 2016 and over the medium term,despite the sector being affected by the continued slowdown in the eurozone economy and weak emergingmarket demand. Increased domestic consumption is replacing exports as a key driver for economic activity,resulting in stronger import growth, outpacing that of exports over the next few years, helping growth inmost freight modes.
With the household consumption outlook looking increasingly positive, the long-awaited rebalancing of theGerman economy away from net exports and toward domestic demand is underway. While we believeGermany's current account surplus is currently peaking on the back of lower oil prices, the narrowing of thesurplus over the next five years will be limited by tight fiscal policy. Germany remains among the top fivelargest global economies, but is set to slip over the long term. Two unexpected events in H215 - theVolkswagen emissions scandal and the surging inflows of foreign migrants to Germany - are likely to beneutral-to-positive for near-term growth, but the long-term effects are more difficult to predict. If anything,both bolster our core outlook for rebalancing in Germany's economy toward domestic demand. Our Germangrowth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 remain above-consensus at 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively (versusconsensus estimates of 1.7% and 1.8%).
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