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Germany Freight Transport Report 2016

Germany Freight Transport Report 2016

BMI View: We will continue to see growth in Germany's freight sector in 2016 and over the medium term,despite the sector being affected by the continued slowdown in the eurozone economy and weak emergingmarket demand. Increased domestic consumption is replacing exports as a key driver for economic activity,resulting in stronger import growth, outpacing that of exports over the next few years, helping growth inmost freight modes.

Economic Outlook

With the household consumption outlook looking increasingly positive, the long-awaited rebalancing of theGerman economy away from net exports and toward domestic demand is underway. While we believeGermany's current account surplus is currently peaking on the back of lower oil prices, the narrowing of thesurplus over the next five years will be limited by tight fiscal policy. Germany remains among the top fivelargest global economies, but is set to slip over the long term. Two unexpected events in H215 - theVolkswagen emissions scandal and the surging inflows of foreign migrants to Germany - are likely to beneutral-to-positive for near-term growth, but the long-term effects are more difficult to predict. If anything,both bolster our core outlook for rebalancing in Germany's economy toward domestic demand. Our Germangrowth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 remain above-consensus at 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively (versusconsensus estimates of 1.7% and 1.8%).


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Germany 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Germany 2013-2019)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Germany 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Germany 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Germany 2013-2020)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Lufthansa Cargo - 2015
DB Schenker Rail
Hamburg Süd
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Political Overview Table
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Germany 2013-2020)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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