Global B2C E-Commerce & Payments: Market Data and Forecasts 2026
Description
B2C E-Commerce Growth, Non-Cash Transactions, and AI Investment Are Forecast to Reshape Global Commerce Over the Next Five Years
As B2C E-Commerce matures, payment systems digitize, and AI investment accelerates, these trends are jointly reshaping global digital commerce.
Key Forecast Highlights
Global B2C E-Commerce is forecast to exceed 22% of total retail sales by 2027.
Global non-cash transaction volumes are projected to surpass 2.5 trillion by 2028.
The global value of AI in payments is forecast to reach USD 60 billion by 2031.
Global B2C E-Commerce Is Transitioning Toward Maturity as Growth Shifts from Penetration to Usage
Global B2C E-Commerce is forecast to enter a structurally mature phase, with slower gains in online penetration and stronger growth in transaction activity. Retail B2C E-Commerce share is expected to surpass 22% by 2027, up from just above 20% in 2024, while global online sales are projected to approach USD 8 trillion. This indicates that future growth will be increasingly driven by higher purchase frequency and platform scale rather than first-time adoption.
Global Payments Are Expanding Through Non-Cash and Instant Systems Across Markets
Global payments are forecast to continue shifting toward non-cash and instant methods as transaction volumes and revenues rise. Total non-cash transactions worldwide are projected to exceed 2.5 trillion by 2028, while global payments revenue is expected to reach more than USD 3 trillion. Asia-Pacific is projected to account for the largest share of payments revenue in 2027, reflecting the rapid spread of real-time payment infrastructure.
AI Is Becoming a Structural Growth Driver Across E-Commerce and Financial Services
AI investment across digital commerce and financial services is forecast to accelerate as institutions scale automation and analytics. The global AI in payments market is projected to reach USD 60 billion by 2031, while AI in fintech is expected to expand from over USD 18 billion in 2025 to more than USD 53 billion by 2030. This growth reflects AI’s increasing role in fraud detection, operational efficiency, and data-driven decision-making.
As B2C E-Commerce matures, payment systems digitize, and AI investment accelerates, these trends are jointly reshaping global digital commerce.
Key Forecast Highlights
Global B2C E-Commerce is forecast to exceed 22% of total retail sales by 2027.
Global non-cash transaction volumes are projected to surpass 2.5 trillion by 2028.
The global value of AI in payments is forecast to reach USD 60 billion by 2031.
Global B2C E-Commerce Is Transitioning Toward Maturity as Growth Shifts from Penetration to Usage
Global B2C E-Commerce is forecast to enter a structurally mature phase, with slower gains in online penetration and stronger growth in transaction activity. Retail B2C E-Commerce share is expected to surpass 22% by 2027, up from just above 20% in 2024, while global online sales are projected to approach USD 8 trillion. This indicates that future growth will be increasingly driven by higher purchase frequency and platform scale rather than first-time adoption.
Global Payments Are Expanding Through Non-Cash and Instant Systems Across Markets
Global payments are forecast to continue shifting toward non-cash and instant methods as transaction volumes and revenues rise. Total non-cash transactions worldwide are projected to exceed 2.5 trillion by 2028, while global payments revenue is expected to reach more than USD 3 trillion. Asia-Pacific is projected to account for the largest share of payments revenue in 2027, reflecting the rapid spread of real-time payment infrastructure.
AI Is Becoming a Structural Growth Driver Across E-Commerce and Financial Services
AI investment across digital commerce and financial services is forecast to accelerate as institutions scale automation and analytics. The global AI in payments market is projected to reach USD 60 billion by 2031, while AI in fintech is expected to expand from over USD 18 billion in 2025 to more than USD 53 billion by 2030. This growth reflects AI’s increasing role in fraud detection, operational efficiency, and data-driven decision-making.
Table of Contents
192 Pages
- 1. Key Takeaways
- 2. Management Summary
- 3. Global Market Forecast
- 3.1. Global B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- Global: Retail E-Commerce Share, in % of Total Retail Sales, 2021-2027f
- Global: Retail E-Commerce Sales, in USD trillion, in % Year-on-Year Change, 2021-2027f
- Global: Retail E-Commerce Share, in % of Total Retail Sales, 2022-2028f
- Global: Retail E-Commerce Sales, in USD trillion, in % Year-on-Year Change, 2022-2028f
- Global: Online Retail Sales as a Share of Total Retail Sales, in %, 2028f
- Global: Online Retail Sales, in USD trillion, 2023 & 2028f
- 3.2. Global Digital Payments Forecast Overview
- Global: Total Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume trillions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- Global: Total B2B Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- Global: Payments Revenue Value, in USD trillion, 2013, 2018, 2020- 2023, 2028f
- Global: Transaction-Related Payments Revenue, by Region, in USD billion, and Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2019, 2024 & 2029f
- Global: Payment Revenue Value, in USD trillion, 2027f
- Global: Payment Mix: New Payments vs Traditional Payments, In % of transaction volume, 2023 & 2028f
- Global: Value of AI in Payments, in USD billion, 2023 & 2031f
- 3.3. Global AI & Automation Forecast Overview
- Global: Growth of AI in Fintech Market, in USD billions, 2025 & 2030f
- Global: Generative AI Market Size, in USD billions, 2025 & 2030f
- Global: Spend by Banks on Generative AI, in USD billion, 2024e & 2030f
- Global: Generative AI Market Size, in USD billion, 2023e & 2027f
- 4. Asia-Pacific Market Forecast
- 4.1. Asia-Pacific B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- Asia-Pacific: Retail E-Commerce Sales, in USD trillion, & in % of Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2022-2028f
- China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia: Online Retail Sales, in USD trillion, 2023 & 2028f
- Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore: Retail E-Commerce Sales, n USD billion, 2023 & 2028f
- 4.2. Asia-Pacific Digital Payments Forecast Overview
- 4.2.1. Infrastructure, Revenue, and Payment Method Forecast
- Asia-Pacific: Total Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- Asia-Pacific: Total B2B Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- Asia-Pacific: Top Point-of-Sales Payment Methods, in % of Transaction Value, 2023 - 2027f
- Asia-Pacific: Share of Payment Revenue Value, in %, 2027f
- 4.2.2. Country-Level Digital Payment Forecasts and Method Preferences
- 4.2.2.1. China
- China: Forecasted Payment Market Size, in USD trillions, 2025e & 2030f
- China: Card Transaction Value, in USD trillion, 2024 & 2028f
- China: Debit Card Transaction Value, in CNY trillions, 2020 - 2028f
- China: Credit and Charge Card Transaction Value, in CNY trillions, 2020 - 2028f
- 4.2.2.2. Japan
- Japan: Mobile Payments Market Size, in USD billion, 2025 & 2030f
- Japan: Real-Time Transactions Volume, in billions, 2023 & 2028f
- Japan: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- Japan: Share of Paper-Based Payments, in %, 2023 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.3. India
- India: Mobile Wallet Payments, in USD trillion, 2024 & 2028f
- India: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.4. South Korea
- South Korea: B2C E-Commerce Payment Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- South Korea: Mobile Payments Market Size, in USD billions, 2024 & 2033f
- South Korea: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.5. Australia
- Australia: Mobile Wallet Payments, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- Australia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.6. Indonesia
- Indonesia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Indonesia: Mobile Payments Market Size, in USD billions, 2025e & 2030f
- 4.2.2.7. Thailand
- Thailand: Mobile Wallet Payments, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.8. Vietnam
- Vietnam: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- 4.2.2.9. Malaysia
- Malaysia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.10. Singapore
- Singapore: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.11. Philippines
- Philippines: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 4.2.2.12. Hong Kong
- Honk Kong: Payment Market Size, in USD trillions, 2025e & 2030f
- 4.2.2.13. New Zealand
- New Zealand: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- 4.3. Southeast Asia AI & Automation Forecast Overview
- SEA: Average Cost Reduction from AI/GenAI, in % of Total Costs, 2023 & 2027f
- SEA: Average Revenue Growth from AI/GenAI, in % Revenue Growth, 2023 & 2027f
- 5. North America Market Forecast
- 5.1. North America B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- 5.1.1. U.S.
- U.S.: B2C E-Commerce Sales, in USD trillion, & in % of Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2022-2028f
- U.S.: B2C E-Commerce Share, in % of Total B2C Sales, 2022-2028f
- U.S.: Online B2C Sales as a Share of Total B2C Sales, in %, 2024 & 2029f
- U.S.: Online B2C Sales, in USD trillion, 2024 & 2029f
- U.S.: Amazon and Walmart’s Projected Share of Total U.S. E-Commerce Sales, 2029f
- 5.1.2. Canada
- Canada: B2C E-Commerce Share, in % of Total B2C Sales, 2022-2027f
- Canada: B2C E-Commerce Sales, in CAD billion, in % of Year-on-Year Change, 2022-2027f
- 5.2. North America Digital Payments Forecast Overview
- 5.2.1. North America
- North America: Total Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- North America: Total B2B Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- North America: Payments Revenue, in USD trillion, 2017 & 2020- 2022 & 2027f
- North America: Share of Payment Revenue Value, in %, 2027f
- North America: Payments Market Revenue Share by Global Region, in %, 2027f
- North America: Payments Market Growth by Global Region, CAGR (%), 2022-2027f
- U.S.: Digital Commerce Platforms' Gross Payment Value, in USD bil., Year-on-Year Growth Rate, 2022-2026f
- 5.2.2. U.S.
- U.S.: Cards Transaction Value, in USD trillion, 2024e & 2028f*
- U.S.: Share of Digital Commerce Payments by Type, in %, 2017, 2022, and 2027f
- U.S.: BNPL Payment Value, by Company, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- 6.1. Europe B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- Western Europe: Retail E-Commerce Share, in % of Total Retail Sales, 2022-2028f
- Western Europe: Retail E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, in % of Year-on-Year Change, 2022-2028f
- Western Europe: Online Retail Sales, in USD billion, 2023 & 2028f
- Italy: E-Commerce Market Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- 6.2. Europe Digital Payments Forecast Overview
- 6.2.1. Europe & EMEA Payments Forecasts
- Europe: Total Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- Europe: Total B2B Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- EMEA: Share of Payment Revenue Value, in %, 2027f
- Europe, Middle East, and Africa: Payments Market Growth by Global Region, CAGR (%), 2022 - 2027f
- Europe, Middle East, and Africa: Payments Market Revenue Share by Global Region, in %, 2027f
- 6.2.2. Western Europe Consumer Payments Forecasts: Major Markets
- UK: Cards Transaction Value, in USD trillion, 2023 & 2027f
- UK: Total Payments via Faster Payments and Remote Banking, in billions, 2023 & 2033f
- UK: Total Debit Card Payments, in billions, 2023 & 2033f
- UK: Contactless Debit and Credit Card Payment Volume, in billions, 2023 & 2033f
- UK: Bacs Direct Credit Payment Volume, in billions, 2023 & 2033f
- UK: Direct Debit Payment Volume, in billions, 2023 & 2033f
- UK: Share of Card Payments (Debit and Credit), in %, 2023 & 2033f
- UK: Share of Payments Made via Contactless Debit and Credit Cards, in %, 2033f
- France: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- Germany: E-Commerce Market Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Germany: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Italy: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Austria: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 6.2.3. Eastern & Southern Europe Payments Forecasts: Growth Markets
- Poland: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Czech Republic: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Hungary: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- Greece: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2027f
- Slovenia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2024 & 2028f
- Slovenia: Number of Contactless Payment Cards, in millions, 2023 & 2028f
- Romania: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2024 & 2028f
- Slovakia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2024 & 2028f
- Serbia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- Lithuania: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- Bulgaria: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2023 & 2024 & 2028f
- Croatia: Cards Transaction Value, in USD billion, 2024 & 2028f
- 7. Middle East Market Forecast
- 7.1. Middle East B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- MENA: B2C E-Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, 2021, 2022 & 2026f
- Saudi Arabia: B2C E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales, in %, 2023 & 2035f
- Saudi Arabia: Millennials’ Spending Share of Total B2C E-Commerce Sales, in %, 2023 & 2035f
- UAE: B2C E-Commerce Revenue, in USD billion, 2024e & 2028f
- UAE: B2C E-Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, 2019-2026f
- UAE: Mobile Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, 2019-2026f
- Israel: B2C E-Commerce Revenue, in USD billion, 2023e & 2027f
- Israel: Fashion B2C E-Commerce Revenue, in USD billion, 2023e & 2027f
- Qatar: B2C E-Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, 2023e & 2027f
- Qatar: Share of Adults That Shop Online, in %, 2023e & 2027f
- Oman: B2C E-Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, June 2023e & 2028f
- 7.2. Middle East Digital Payments Forecast Overview
- MEA: Total Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- MEA: Total B2B Non-cash Transactions Volume, in volume billions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- MENA: Digital Economy Value, in USD billion, 2022 & 2030f
- 7.3. Middle East AI AI & Automation Forecast Overview
- Qatar: AI Market Value, in QAR billions, 2024e & 2030f
- META: AI Spending and Growth Outlook, in USD Billions, 2024 & 2028f
- MENA: Projected GDP Share from AI vs. Other Sources, in % of Total GDP, 2030f
- 8. Latin America Market Forecast
- 8.1. Latin America B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- 8.1.1. Latin America Market Size Forecast & Growth Projections
- Latin America: Digital Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, 2020-2026f
- Latin America: Retail E-Commerce Share, in % of Total Retail Sales, 2022-2028f
- Latin America: Retail E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, in % of Year-on-Year Change, 2022-2028f
- Latin America: Online Retail Sales and E-Commerce Share, in USD billion and %, 2023 & 2028f
- Latin America: Total E-Commerce Transaction Volume, in USD bn, and Y-o-Y Growth in % of Transaction Volume, 2021–2027f
- 8.1.2. Latin America Market Penetration, Digital Adoption & E-Commerce Growth
- Latin America: Internet Users, by Selected Countries, in % of Total Population, 2024 & 2026f
- Brazil: E-Commerce Volume Forecast, in USD billion, 2024 & 2027f, CAGR 2024 - 2027f
- Mexico: E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales Compared to the U.S., in % of Total Retail Sales, 2026f
- Mexico: B2C E-Commerce GMV Forecast, in USD billion, 2025 & 2030f, CAGR 2025 - 2030f
- 8.2. Latin America Digital Payments Forecast Overview
- 8.2.1. Latin America Payments Forecast & Non-Cash Transaction Growth
- Latin America: Payments Revenue, in USD trillion, 2017 & 2020-2022 & 2027f
- Latin America: Share of Payment Revenue Value, in %, 2027f
- Latin America: Payments Market Growth by Global Region, CAGR (%), 2022 - 2027f
- Latin America: Payments Market Revenue Share by Global Region, in %, 2027f
- Latin America: Total Non-Cash Transactions, in billions of Transactions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- Latin America: Total B2B Non-Cash Transactions, in billions of Transactions, 2018 & 2021-2024e & 2028f
- 8.2.2. Latin America Country-Level A2A Payment & E-Commerce Spend Forecasts
- Brazil: A2A Payments Share, in % of E-Commerce Spend, 2020, 2023 & 2027f
- Mexico: A2A Payments Share, in % of E-Commerce Spend, 2020, 2023 & 2027f
- Chile: A2A Payments Share, in % of E-Commerce Spend, 2020, 2023 & 2027f
- Argentina: A2A Payments Share, in % of E-Commerce Spend, 2020, 2023 & 2027f
- 9. Africa Market Forecast
- 9.1. Africa B2C E-Commerce Forecast Overview
- Africa: E-Commerce Market Outlook, 2026
- Africa: Structural Shifts Influencing E-Commerce Growth, 2026
- Africa: E-Commerce Market Size Growth, in USD billions, 2024 & 2033f
- 9.2. Africa: AI & Automation Forecast Overview
- Africa: Market Value of AI, in USD billions, 2025e & 2030f
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