Category: International Trade
Africa International Trade
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
... 3.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2023. Our projection is below the IMF’s 4.3% forecast, as we believe the country's security situation will constrain stronger growth. Violence has spread across most regions and intensified along ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
... projection of 3.5%. That said, we still anticipate a slowdown in Chad's economic growth this year due to lower oil prices. Domestic security issues undermine structural reform momentum and weigh on medium-term economic growth prospects. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
... suggests. This revelation halted IMF payouts under the current arrangement and soured global sentiment towards the West African nation. Even so, the country’s economic potential is promising, especially in the fledgling hydrocarbon sector. We currently ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
... IMF. Against this backdrop, we forecast real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025. Downside risks to our economic outlook include a deterioration in the security situation, unfavourable weather conditions, and uncertainty surrounding the 2025 elections. Read More
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Economy of Morocco 2025
... social inclusion and housing and is in the process of acquiring a significant industrial sector. Morocco boasts Africa's first high speed train line with plans for future expansion. There are vast shale oil deposits but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
... the legislation governing the bank. These changes will come at a cost, with the possibility of increased inflationary pressures and lower FX reserves. In the same month, Mr Saïed replaced Finance Minister Sihem Boughdiri with ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Equatorial Guinea
... January last year. At these levels, oil production was down 5.4% during the first 10 months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. We expect oil production to decline by 6.5% this year, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
... remittances remain robust. The central bank’s Composite Index of Economic Activity pointed to an economic expansion of around 6% in January 2025. As a result, we have raised our real GDP growth forecast for 2025 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
... government spending was initially trimmed by 2.8% to KSh3.88trn in July's supplementary budget to align with revised revenue expectations and the IMF’s fiscal consolidation targets. However, last month’s Budget Policy Statement (BPS) partially reversed the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
... to the rainy season, water levels are rising, strengthening prospects for improved hydropower generation, a favourable agricultural season, and a reversal of drought-related cost adjustments. In January, the energy regulator opted to extend the emergency ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
... Arab nations presented a reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip. The plan is a positive first step, even though critical questions remain. The most important of these are who will fund the reconstruction, and who ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
... in January for first-quarter government spending. In February, an IMF delegation visited Ghana to discuss this year's budget and evaluate the new administration’s commitment to the current Extended Credit Facility. The fourth programme review is ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
... in exports dragged on growth. We forecast real GDP growth to slow over the next two years, reaching 4.4% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. Malian gold production tumbled to 51.0 tonnes in 2024 from ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
... the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the chances of an end to the war are slightly better than a year ago. Earlier this month, the SAF made major territorial gains, securing much of Khartoum, which it lost ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
... Q3 2024, driven by persistently strong growth in mining & quarrying and accommodation & catering. By contrast, output in agriculture & fisheries contracted by 4.2% y/y. We have revised our real GDP growth forecast for ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
... electricity generation. Meanwhile, the ZiG has stabilised somewhat after last year’s 43% devaluation. In a recent policy statement, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) noted that elevated interest rates and increased foreign exchange reserves have ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
... many essential services rely heavily on foreign support to sustain their operations. In the 2023/24 fiscal year, Tanzania was the second-largest recipient of USAID health funding in Africa ($337m) while ranking 10th in overall USAID ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
... Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT industries will uphold strong tertiary sector growth. By contrast, subdued cocoa production will hamper Côte d’Ivoire’s agricultural sector. Ultimately, we forecast real GDP growth of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
... economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed a more cautious approach than markets were expecting. We expect the Fed to deliver only one interest rate cut this year (in December), instead ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
... the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We forecast economic growth to ease to 2.9% in 2025 from 4.5% in 2024. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
... rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 2025 was lowered significantly. Based on these developments, we forecast Botswana's overall diamond production to decline by a further 11.7% in 2025, compared with ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
... the year. The budget also plans to reduce subsidies. While this is socially unpopular, it would pave the way for the state to invest more in new roads and railways and to support projects in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
... expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be plagued by high inflation, rising public debt (which constrains fiscal spending), and forex and fuel shortages. As a result, we have ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
... diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertainty over a looming global trade war. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
... electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2025 (from 2.1% in 2024), the highest figure in almost a decade and boosted by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II). Read More
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