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Future of the Russian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Russian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Summary

The Future of the Russian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers withdetailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings

Over the historic period, Russia’s defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 13.95%,increasing from US$52.5billion in 2011 to US$88.6 billion in 2015

Russia’s military expenditure, valued at US$88.6billion in 2015, is expected to increase to US$152.1 billion by 2020, registering a CAGR of 10.93% over the forecast period

Russian military expenditure will be drivenby the modernization of defense systems, large defense procurement projects, and an increase in defense exports

The Defense Ministry is expected to procurespace-based C4ISR, infrastructure construction, land-based C4ISR, transport aircraft, and multi-role aircraft

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis ofthe Russian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

Russian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry during 2016–2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Russian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Russian defense industry.

It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Russian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of the Russian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts


1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 SDI Terrorism Index
1.5 About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1 Russia’s defense budget to grow at a CAGR of 10.93% to value US$152.1 billion by 2020
3.1.2 Military modernization and defense exports to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period
3.1.3 Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 8.28% over the forecast period
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1 The majority of Russia’s defense budget is allocated to revenue expenditure
3.2.2 Russia’s capital expenditure expected to reach US$57.1billion by 2020
3.2.3 Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1 Russian homeland security spending forecast to reach US$62.1billion by 2020
3.3.2 Border security and fight against cyber attacks to factor growth in the homeland security market
3.3.3 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) Terrorism Index considers Russia a “highly affected” region
3.3.4 Russia faces a significant threat from terrorists
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1 Russian defense budget growth to be higher than the majority of large spenders during 2015-2019
3.4.2 Russia is world’s third largest defense spender
3.4.3 Russia allocated 5.8% of its GDP to defense in 2015
3.4.4 Russia is “highly affected” from acts of terrorism
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1 Space based-C4ISR
3.5.2 Infrastructure Construction
3.5.3 Land Based C4ISR
3.5.4 Transport Aircraft
3.5.5 Multi-role Aircraft
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1 Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1 The country’s defense imports are low owing to a developed indigenous sector
4.1.2 Ukraine was the key defense supplier to Russia
4.1.3 Aircraft and engines were the key defense imports during 2009–2013
4.2 Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1 During 2009-2013, Russia was the world’s second largest arms exporter
4.2.2 India, China and Algeria are Russia’s main defense equipment purchasers
4.2.3 Aircraft and missiles account for the majority of Russia’s defense exports
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1 Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low to high
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3 Barrier to entry: high
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1 Market Regulation
6.1.1 Entry into defense sector is highly regulated
6.1.2 Market Entry Route
6.2 Key Challenges
6.2.1 Aversion of Russian government to Western defense technology
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1 Domestic industry in the process of consolidation for better focus and fund allocation
7.1.2 Defense sector is dominated by domestic firms, with no foreign presence
7.2 Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1 Sukhoi: overview
7.2.2 Sukhoi: products
7.2.3 Sukhoi: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4 Sukhoi: alliances
7.2.5 Sukhoi: recent contract awards
7.2.6 Splav – overview
7.2.7 Splav – major products and services
7.2.8 Tactical Missiles Corporation: overview
7.2.9 Tactical Missiles Corporation – major products and services
7.2.10 Tactical Missiles Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.11 Tactical Missiles Corporation – recent contract wins
7.2.12 Almaz-Antey – overview
7.2.13 Almaz-Antey – Major Products and Services
7.2.14 Almaz-Antey – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.15 Almaz-Antey – alliances
7.2.16 Almaz-Antey – recent contract wins
7.2.17 United Aircraft Corporation – overview
7.2.18 United Aircraft Corporation – major products and services
7.2.19 United Aircraft Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.20 United Aircraft Corporation – alliances
7.2.21 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – overview
7.2.22 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – major products and services
7.2.23 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.24 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent contract wins
7.2.25 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – overview
7.2.26 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – major products and services
7.2.27 Kurganmashzavod – overview
7.2.28 Kurganmashzavod – major products and services
7.2.29 Kurganmashzavod – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.30 Kurganmashzavod – alliances
7.2.31 Kurganmashzavod – recent contract wins
7.2.32 Uralvagonzavod – overview
7.2.33 Uralvagonzavod – major products and services
7.2.34 Uralvagonzavod – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.35 Uralvagonzavod – alliances
7.2.36 Uralvagonzavod – recent contract wins
7.2.37 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – overview
7.2.38 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – major products and services
7.2.39 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.40 Irkut Corporation – overview
7.2.41 Irkut Corporation – major products and services
7.2.42 Irkut Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.43 Irkut Corporation – alliances
7.2.44 Irkut Corporation – recent contract wins
7.2.45 Irkut Corporation – financial analysis
7.2.46 Oboronprom Corporation – overview
7.2.47 Oboronprom Corporation – major products and services
7.2.48 Oboronprom Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.49 Oboronprom Corporation – alliances
7.2.50 Oboronprom Corporation – recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1 Demographic and Social Stats
8.1.1 Total Rural Population (In Mn)
8.1.2 Total Urban Population (In Mn)
8.1.3 Number of Households (In Mn)
8.2 Economic Performance
8.2.1 GDP Per Capita, USD
8.2.2 GDP (current USD Bn)
8.2.3 Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn)
8.2.4 Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn)
8.2.5 Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)
8.2.6 Manufacturing Output (USD Bn)
8.2.7 Consumer price Index
8.2.8 Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9 LCU per USD (period average)
8.2.10 LCU per EUR (period average)
8.2.11 Lending Rate (%)
8.2.12 Deposit Rate (%)
8.2.13 Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.14 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion)
8.2.15 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.16 Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn)
8.2.17 Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.18 Goods exports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.19 Goods imports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.20 Goods balance as a percentage of GDP
8.2.21 Services imports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.22 Services Exports as a percentage of GDP
8.2.23 Services balance as a percentage of GDP
8.2.24 Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
8.2.25 Net Foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP
8.2.26 International reserves, including gold (USD Billion)
8.3 Energy and Utilities
8.3.1 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
8.3.2 Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
8.3.3 Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)
8.3.4 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts)
8.3.5 Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours)
8.3.6 Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours)
8.3.7 Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.3.8 Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)
8.3.9 Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
8.3.10 Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.4 Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1 Rail lines (total route - km)
8.4.2 Air transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.4.3 Overall construction (US$ Million)
8.5 Minerals
8.5.1 Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities Output (USD Bn)
8.6 Technology
8.6.1 Research and development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands)
8.6.2 Patents granted
8.7 Telecommunication
8.7.1 Telephone lines (In Mn)
8.7.2 Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people)
9 Appendix
9.1 About SDI
9.2 Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Russian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011–2015
Table 2: Russian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016–2020
Table 3: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2011–2015
Table 4: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2016–2020
Table 5: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011–2015
Table 6: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016–2020
Table 7: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011–2015
Table 8: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016–2020
Table 9: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011–2015
Table 10: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2016–2020
Table 11: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB billion), 2011–2015
Table 12: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB Billion), 2016–2020
Table 13: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011–2015
Table 14: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016–2020
Table 15: Russian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2011–2015
Table 16: Russian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2016–2020
Table 17: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2011–2015
Table 18: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2016–2020
Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2011–2015 vs. 2016–2020
Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 21: Sukhoi – Major Products & Services
Table 22: Sukhoi – Alliances
Table 23: Sukhoi – Recent Contract Wins
Table 24: Splav – Major Products & Services
Table 25: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Major Products & Services
Table 26: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Recent Contract Wins
Table 27: Almaz-Antey – Major Products & Services
Table 28: Almaz-Antey – Alliances
Table 29: Almaz-Antey – Recent Contract Wins
Table 30: United Aircraft Corporation – Major Products & Services
Table 31: United Aircraft Corporation – Alliances
Table 32: KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Major Products & Services
Table 33: KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent contract wins
Table 34: V.A.Degtyarev Plant – Major Products & Services
Table 35: Kurganmashzavod – Major Products and Services
Table 36: Kurganmashzavod – Alliances
Table 37: Kurganmashzavod – Recent Contract Wins
Table 38: Uralvagonzavod – Major Products & Services
Table 39: Uralvagonzavod – Alliances
Table 40: Uralvagonzavod – Recent Contract Wins
Table 41: Izhevsk Mechanical Works – Major Products & Services
Table 42: Irkut Corporation – Major Products & Services
Table 43: Irkut Corporation – Alliances
Table 44: Irkut Corporation – Recent Contract Wins
Table 45: Oboronprom Corporation – Major Products & Services
Table 46: Oboronprom Corporation – Alliances
Table 47: Oboronprom Corporation – Recent Contract Wins
List of Figures
Figure 1: Russian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011–2015
Figure 2: Russian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016–2020
Figure 3: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2011–2015
Figure 4: Russian Defense Expenditure RUB Billion), 2016–2020
Figure 5: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011–2015
Figure 6: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016–2020
Figure 7:Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011–2015
Figure 8: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016–2020
Figure 9: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion),2011–2015
Figure 10: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2016–2020
Figure 11: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB billion), 2011–2015
Figure 12: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB Billion), 2016–2020
Figure 13: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011–2015
Figure 14: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016–2020
Figure 15: Russian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2011–2015
Figure 16: Russian Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2015–2019
Figure 17: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2011–2015
Figure 18: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2015–2019
Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index
Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2011–2015 vs. 2016–2020
Figure 22: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),2015 and 2020
Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 24: C4ISR - Space Market Size (US$ Billion), 2015–2025
Figure 25: Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Billion), 2015–2025
Figure 26: Land-based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Billion), 2015–2025
Figure 27: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2015–2025
Figure 28: Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2015–2025
Figure 29: Russian Defense Import Trend, 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 30: Russian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2009–2013
Figure 31: Russian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2009–2013
Figure 32: Russian Defense Export Trend, 2009–2013(TIV values)
Figure 33: Russian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2009–2013
Figure 34: Russian Defense Exports by Category (%),2009–2013
Figure 35: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 36: Irkut Corporation – Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2009–2013
Figure 37: Irkut Corporation – Operating Profit (US$ Million), 2009–2013
Figure 38: Irkut Corporation – Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2009–2013
Figure 39: Total Rural Population (In Mn), 2015–2024
Figure 40: Total Urban Population (In Mn), 2015–2024
Figure 41: Number of Households (In Mn), 2008–2017
Figure 42: GDP Per Capita in USD, 2015–2024
Figure 43: GDP (current USD Bn), 2015–2024
Figure 44: Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 45: Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 46: Gross National disposable income (USD Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 47: Manufacturing Output (USD Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 48: Consumer price Index, 2015–2024
Figure 49: Wholesale Price Index, 2003–2012
Figure 50: LCU per USD (period average), 2015–2024
Figure 51: LCU per EUR (period average), 2015–2024
Figure 52: Lending Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 53: Deposit Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 54: Real Interest Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 55: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies, 2003–2012
Figure 56: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2002–2011
Figure 57: Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 58: Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002–2011
Figure 59: Goods exports as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 60: Goods imports as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 61: Goods balance as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 62: Service imports as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 63: Services exports as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 64: Services balance as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 65: Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 66: Net Foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 67: International reserves, including gold (USD Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 68: Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 69: Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003–2012
Figure 70: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003–2012
Figure 71: Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001–2010
Figure 72: Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 73: Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 74: The Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004–2013
Figure 75: Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003–2012
Figure 76: The Proved Reserves of Crude Oil (Billion Barrels), 2004–2013
Figure 77: Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2002–2011
Figure 78: Rail lines (total route - km), 2002–2011
Figure 79: Air transport, freight (million ton-km), 2002–2011
Figure 80: Overall construction (US$ Million), 2007–2016
Figure 81: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 82: Research and development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2001–2010
Figure 83: Patents granted, 2003–2012
Figure 84: Telephone Lines (In Mn), 2003–2012
Figure 85: Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people) 2003–2012

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