Transformer Report 2023 Ed 11 – Vol. 1 & 2

Transformer Report 2023 Ed 11 – Vol. 1 & 2

Vol 1 Market Analysis
Chapter 1 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chapter 2 – ACCURACY AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ERROR
For the first time, we have conducted statistical analysis of error to determine the accuracy of this Transformer Report. The overall relative error of the estimate of the global market is 9%. Regional figures are provided in Chapter 2 and individual figures for each country in Table 156.

Chapter 3 - THE WORLD MARKET FOR POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS
Demand for the world, regions and each country for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value. Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. The ratio of transformer capacity to generating capacity.

Chapter 4 - NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS (USA, CANADA, MEXICO)
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value. Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Market drivers and utility investment are outlined. The manufacturing industry is analysed in detail by transformer category; LPT, power, medium power transformers, liquid and dry type MV transformers, LV dry type. Purchase influences and delivery channels are analysed. Efficiency are outlined. Extensive company profiles for each country . Detailed market shares for USA, Canada and Mexico for all transformer producers with transformer sales > USD 5 million.

Chapter 5 – LAC TRANSFORMER MARKET
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value, for South America, Central America and major markets ((Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Peru). Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Market drivers. Extensive company profiles. Detailed market shares for Brazil for all transformer producers with transformer sales > USD 5 million.

Chapter 6 - EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value, for Europe, EU and each of 33 countries. Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. A review of the major European markets and utility system is provided. Market drivers. Extensive company profiles. Detailed market shares for Europe for all transformer producers with transformer sales > USD 5 million.

Chapter 7 – CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value, for the CIS, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Market drivers. The major Russian and Ukrainian transformers are profiled. A caution is added regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its consequences.

Chapter 8 – AFRICAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value, for North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa and major countries (North Africa - Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia; Sub-Saharan Africa - South Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania). Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Major company profiles.

Chapter 9 - MIDDLE EASTERN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, for 2020, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value for the region and major countries (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Syria, Yemen). Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by countries and transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Market outline and company profiles for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates.

Chapter 10 - CHINESE TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value. Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Utility and market commentary and major Chinese company profiles.

Chapter 11 - ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Demand for oil-filled power and distribution transformers and dry-type MV and LV transformers is forecast in MVA and nominal $ values, with 2021 as base year and forecast to 2028, in MVA capacity and nominal market value, for the region and major countries (Japan, India, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam). Similar market sizes and forecasts are given in MVA for central and distributed GSU transformers (CGSU and DGSU respectively), power transformers (PT), distribution transformers (DT) and dry-type transformers. Also, analysis of power transformers, distribution transformers, MV dry-type and LV dry-type transformers by production/imports/exports and markets. The installed base of transformers is analysed by transformer category - CGSU, PT network, DGSU, DT network. Utility, market profiles and profiles of major manufacturers in India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. An interesting analysis is provided of investment as a % of GDP, which shows clearly the dominance of the Asian countries and MENA with implications for markets. Detailed market shares for India for all transformer producers with transformer sales > USD 5 million.

Chapter 12 - PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES
In recent years, the prices of electrotechnical products have been volatile due to variations in many factors which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price Index, industry trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition. A review of electrical steel production and capacity is included.

Chapter 13 - THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
Long term trends and demand cycles for transformers based on the historical data for generating and transformer capacity, from 1900 to 2022 and forecast to 2050. Power transformers have along service lives, often 40 years or more, with some still in service aged 60-80 years and even a few 100 years old. It is therefore essential to plot long term installed capacity. There are variations between countries, which are the result of different network designs and voltage classes. The ratios are given for every country at four stages; GSU, power network, distribution network and total generator transformer capacity.

Chapter 14 - TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Analysis of companies’ production capacity and analysis by country and region. Transformer production capacity is multi-tiered. Tier 1 consists of the well established companies operating to recognised standards, producing transformers and related products to international standards.

Chapter 15 - RECENT TRENDS IN CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED TRANSFORMER CAPACITY
The generation landscape is experiencing a radical realignment. Distributed generation has increased and the growth of central generation has slowed down, due to the sudden acceleration of renewable power generation, which is being fed into the transmission networks and also into the MV distribution networks. This is plotted for every country from 1990 to 2030, derived from the new StatPlan model.

Chapter 16 - TOP 40 IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS OF TRANSFORMERS
Imports and exports of oil-filled<650 kVA, 650 kVA-10 MVA, >10 MVA, dry-type 1<16 kVA, 16-500 kVA, > 500 kVA; all importers and exporters and top 35. Also analysis my voltage - PT, DT, Dry-type MV, dry-type LV.

Chapter 17 - THE CALCULATION OF ACCURACY
3 stages of statistical error analysis – the calculation of the propagation of error

Chapter 18 - METHODOLOGY
Methodology of the StatPlan Transformer Report prior to Ed 10 2022 – Methodology of long term demand trends - The need for a new methodology by 2022 to reflect the energy transition - The new methodology of Ed 10, 2022 - The linkages in the estimation of the different aspects of the transformer market - Estimation of CGSU and DGSU transformer capacity - Generating capacity database - Model for the estimation of central and distributed generating CGSU and DGSU transformers based on generating capacity (MW) - Model for the estimation of utility- and industry-owned distribution transformer capacity - The estimation of utility- and industry-owned transmission transformer capacity - The current market size for transformers - Estimation from company sales - 57 countries - Estimation from growth of MVA capacity – 27 countries - Estimation from national production data – 2 countries - Forecasting the transformer market (USD and MVA).

Vol 2 Market and Industry Commentary
Chapter 1 - INTRODUCTION
Chapter 2 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter 3 - TRANSFORMER TYPES - GSU, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMERS
Transformers are used in the electrical networks everywhere; in power plants, substations, industrial plants, buildings, data centres, railway vehicles, ships, wind turbines, in the electronic devices, underground, and even undersea. Due to peculiarities of all these applications, many different types of transformers have been developed. There are various ways of classifying transformers, by phase (single- or three- phase), the technologies for designing and manufacturing the transformers (core type/shell type), insulation (liquid oil-filled, gas filled, dry-type) and application.

Chapter 4 - LOW VOLTAGE TRANSFORMERS BACKGROUND INFORMATION
LV transformers are used mainly in behind the meter electricity systems in the industrial and commercial sector. Definitions of voltage level vary depending on geography and the context, sometimes considerably. In the two basic designs of network, low voltage in Europe is defined as < 1,000 V, in the USA ≤ 600 V.

Chapter 5 - SOLAR PV SOLAR PV AND TRANSFORMERLESS INVERTERS
Solar photovoltaic modules produce low voltage DC electricity. To feed into the grid the current must be converted to AC and stepped up to grid voltage, requiring the functions of an inverter and a step up transformer. In 2010 a new technology, transformerless inverters for lower kW systems, appeared in the market in Europe. TL inverters use a computerised multi-step process and electronic components to convert DC to high frequency AC, back to DC, and ultimately to standard-frequency AC.

Chapter 6 - NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT
Transformers are needed at all stages in an electrical supply system when the voltage level changes, either up or down and the transport of power goes through several stages between generation and final delivery to the consumer. These stages vary according to the design of the system. Review of the different systems.

Chapter 7 - GAS TO WIRE (GTW)
The concept refers to the burning of gas offshore in power generation facilities local to gas fields with the electricity transmitted to shore via subsea cable - 30% of the value of the natural gas being extracted is eaten up by the cost of taking it to market. By positioning gas-fired power stations at the point of production, companies can take the sting out of transport costs.

Chapter 8 – THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH VOLTAGE TRASMISSION
Evolution of transformers in voltage kV and capacity MVA.

Chapter 9 - HOSTING CAPACITY OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS AND DG PENETRATION
Excessive penetration of distributed generation (DG) systems into electrical networks may lead to various problems and operational limit violations, such as over and under voltages, excessive line losses, overloading of transformers and feed. Many utilities across the country are actively analysing the hosting capacity of their systems. Many more are just beginning to think about it. A review of overvoltage caused by superimposition of renewables on existing networks, power quality, power loss, solutions and rule of thumb hosting capacity calculations.

Chapter 10 - SMART TRANSFORMERS
Challenges such as the aging power grid, increasing energy demands, spiraling cost of generating electricity and its cost on the environment all point toward the need for a grid that can produce and distribute energy more efficiently and reliably. The smart grid is being developed to deal with these problems. Transformers serve as a hub for collection and distribution of energy and are a key component of a successful transition to a smart grid. The smart grid concept ties together all aspects of the power system, from the plug in the wall at a house or office to a factory, to the distribution system, to power plants of all kinds. For the smart grid to work efficiently, there will be a need for smart transformers. As part of the distribution network, there are millions of transformers in the world; unfortunately, very few have any intelligence or communication capabilities that meet advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) standards or are parts of an advanced sensor infrastructure (ASI) network.

Chapter 11 - N+1 STANDARD, N+2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for market size calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure, transformer failure, industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency planning for network failure and electricity distribution.

Chapter 12 - MEPS - MINIMUM ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system and in response to this minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) have been developed an applied. Approximately 70% of the losses in electricity networks occur in the distribution network with conductor accounting for 42% of these losses and transformers about 30%. Transformers operate 24 hours/day, 365 days per year and have very long lifetimes, typically 40-50 years for power transformers and around 30 years for distribution transformers. Energy consumption during its service life is the dominant factor in their life-cycle assessment environmental impact. The increased use of electronic equipment can lead to increased harmonic currents and higher losses in transformers. Transformers are already efficient pieces of equipment, with efficiency in the range of 95 to 99 The issue is discussed and details of mandatory efficiency standards around the world supplied. MEPS are outlined for each major country.

Chapter 13 - HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS
Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers. Amorphous core transformers (AMTs) significantly reduce no-load losses by using an amorphous alloy for the iron core, on which the transformer windings that carry the electricity are coiled. The technology and market penetration is outlined by region and major country.

Chapter 14 - THE SUPPLY CHAIN
The supply chains for transformers and other products is subject to both economic and political leverage and the political factors are increasingly important. Transformer component supply markets have features which are different to other industries. The power transformer industry is not a high-volume business. The total number of power transformers produced in a year is around 20,000 units, it is obvious that the global market size for transformer components is not in the order of millions of pieces. Annual sales of distribution transformers amount to some million units and these range from large DTs which are custom built and have similar supply chain characteristics as power transformers, to medium and small DTs which are now commodity items bought off the shelf with short delivery times. Parts can be sourced from low cost international producers or from local or regional suppliers.

Chapter 15- LOGISTICS
Power transformers, especially GSU and quadboosters, are among the largest and heaviest pieces of equipment that have to be transported, sometimes over long distances. Because of their size and the small numbers in service there are only a few manufacturers of the largest units in the world, thereby necessitating long and complex logistics. This is increasingly mentioned by vendors as a major cost and a consideration in locating manufacturing sites. A review of the complex issues and solutions.

Chapter 16 - ELECTRIFICATION
Demographics and electrification are important aspects of the future market for transformers.

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