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Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2025-2026 - December 2025

Publisher Simba Information – Reports
Published Dec 12, 2025
Length 259 Pages
SKU # CURP20645801

Description

PreK–12 instructional materials demand is projected to increase about 2.8% per year from 2024 to 2027, reaching nearly $14.0 billion in 2027. Growth moderates from the post-pandemic rebound years as ESSER funding winds down and economic headwinds persist, but remains positive as districts continue to prioritize learning-loss recovery, personalized learning, and assessment-driven instruction.

This report covers the US PreK–12 instructional materials market by product category and delivery format, with demand presented in current US dollars. It links spending trends to enrollment, demographic, policy, and budget developments, and analyzes the performance and strategies of leading instructional materials providers.

Sales by product are presented for:
  • Basal curriculum
  • Courseware
  • Digital supplements
  • Print supplements
  • Manipulatives
  • Trade books
  • Video
  • Classroom magazines
  • State-level tests
  • Classroom assessments
Sales by delivery format are presented for:
  • Print instructional materials
  • Digital instructional materials
Geographic coverage:

All market size, share, and forecast data in this study are for the United States PreK–12 instructional materials market; global or multi-country sales breakdowns are not included.

Scope of the Report:

This report analyzes the size, structure, and growth prospects of the US PreK–12 instructional materials market, including trends in basal and supplemental curriculum, assessments, and related classroom solutions. It provides historical sales estimates by product category for 2020–2024 and forecasts through 2027, as well as analysis of the evolving mix of print and digital materials. The study also examines enrollment and demographic trends, K–12 policy and funding dynamics, and the competitive landscape for leading instructional materials providers, including selected company profiles and discussion of recent M&A and investment activity.

Table of Contents

259 Pages
INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
KEY FINDINGS
METHODOLOGY
CHAPTER 1: MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS
TOTAL SALES OF INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS
A Challenging Market Impacts Sales in 2024 and Beyond
2024 Sales by Segment
Table 1-1. Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment, 2023-2024 ($ millions)
Digital Share Ticks Up Slightly
Table 1-2. Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2020-2024
LOOKING AHEAD
Category Trends Continue
Table 1-3. Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment, 2024-2027 ($ millions)
Table 1-4. Market Share, Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools by Segment, 2024-2027
Digital Materials Steady at Two-Thirds of Market
Table 1-5. Forecasted Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2024-2027
CHAPTER 2: ENROLLMENTS AND DEMOGRAPHICS
ENROLLMENT TRENDS
Public School Enrollments Steady in 2023
Figure 2-1. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Fall 1990 through Fall 2023
Trends by Region and State
Table 2-1. Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Region, 2013-2023
Table 2-2. Change in Enrollment, Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, by State, 2013-2023, 2019-2023, 2022-2023
Grade-Level Trends
Table 2-3. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Grade, 2018 – 2031 (in thousands)
Table 2-4. Change in Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Grade, 2018 – 2031
Table 2-5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Public PreK-12 Schools by Grade Band, 2018, 2022, and 2031
Figure 2-2. Projected Enrollments, Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, 2024 – 2031 (in thousands)
Enrollments At Alternative Schools Grow
Table 2-6. Percentage of PreK-12 Students Attending Public, Private, and Public Charter Schools, Fall 2011 vs. Fall 2021
Demographic Differences
Table 2-7. Percentage of Public, Private, and Public Charter Schools by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021
Reasons for the Trends Away from Public Schools
Declining Birth Rates and Immigration
Quality of Public School Education
School Choice
The Future
Number and Location of Schools
Figure 2-3. Number of Public and Elementary and Secondary Schools by School Type and Charter, 2023-2024 School Year
Table 2-8. Number of Public Schools and Average Number of Students Enrolled by School by School Level, 2023-2024 School Year
Table 2-9. Percentage of Public, Charter, and Private Schools by Type of Community, Fall 2021
UNDERLYING POPULATION TRENDS AFFECT ENROLLMENTS
Figure 2-4. Annual Percentage Change in US Population, July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2024
Figure 2-5. US Annual Population Change, Natural Increase and International Migration, July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2024 (in millions)
Birth and Fertility Rates
Reasons for the Declines
Immigration
Under-18 Population Trends
Table 2-10. Number of Children Ages 0-17 in the US by Age, 2018-2022 (in millions)
Table 2-11. Number of Children Ages 0-17 in the US by Age, Projected, 2023-2029 (in millions)
Population Trends by State
Table 2-12. Population and Population Trends by State, 2024
Table 2-13. Percent of Population 0-18 by State, 2023
THE PUBLIC SCHOOL LANDSCAPE
Race and Ethnicity
Table 2-14. Public School Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity, Selected Years, 2013-2023 (in thousands)
Figure 2-6. Public School Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity, Selected Years, 2013-2023
Table 2-15. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Race/Ethnicity, 2023 (in thousands)
Immigration
State Trends
Table 2-16. Share of Public School Students from Immigrant Households and Top-Sending Countries by State, Fall 2021
Illegal immigration
English Learners
Table 2-17. English Learners (ELs) Enrolled in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Fall 2011 through Fall 2021
Characteristics of English Learners
Table 2-18. English Learners by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021
Poverty
Table 2-19. Number and Percentage of Public School Students Receiving Free or Reduced-Price Lunch, 2019-2020 to 2022-2023
Title I
Table 2-20. Number and Percentage of Students Participating in Title I Programs, 2020-2021 School Year
Table 2-21. Number and Percentage of Students Participating in Title I Public Schoolwide or Targeted Assistance Programs by Student Characteristics, 2020-2021
Table 2-22. Number of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Traditional and Charter, Eligible and Participating in Title I Programs, 2021-2022 School Year
Homelessness
Figure 2-7. Homeless Students in US Public Schools, 2020-2021 to 2022-2023
Table 2-23. Percent of Homeless Students by Race/Ethnicity, 2022-2023 School Year
Table 2-24. Percent of Students Who Experienced Homelessness by Subgroup, 2020-2021 Through 2022-2023 School Years
Chronic Absenteeism
Figure 2-8. Percentage of Schools with Significant Chronic Absenteeism by Level, 2017-2018 to 2021-2022
Figure 2-9. Percentage of Students Exhibit Chronic Absenteeism by Student Populations, 2022-2023 School Year
IDEA and Special Needs
Table 2-25. Children 3 to 21 Years Old Served Under IDEA, Part B, 2018-2019 through 2022-2023
Table 2-26. Percentage of Children 3 to 21 Years Old Served Under IDEA Part B by Selected Disability, 2018-2019 through 2022-2023
Graduation Rates
Table 2-27. Number of High School Graduates, 2018-2019 Through 2022-2023
Table 2-28. Number and Distribution of Public High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, 2022-2023
Figure 2-10. National 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate, 2021-2022 School Year
Early Childhood Learning
Figure 2-11. Percentage of 3- to 5-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Public or Private School, 2012 through 2022
Table 2-29. Percentage of 3- to 5-Year-Old Children Enrolled in School, by Race/Ethnicity, Public vs. Private, Fall 2022
Figure 2-12 Percentage of 3- and 4-Year-Olds Enrolled in State-Funded Preschool, 2002-2023
Table 2-30. Percent of Population Enrolled in Early Childhood Education by Type of Public Program
ALTERNATIVES TO TRADITIONAL PUBLIC SCHOOLS
School Choice Drives Change
Figure 2-13. Number of School Choice Programs on the Books by Year
Figure 2-14. Number of Students Participating in ESA, Tax-Credit ESA, Voucher, Tax-Credit Scholarship, and Refundable Tax Credit Programs
Private Schools
Table 2-31. Private Elementary and Secondary Enrollment and Number of Schools by Level and Orientation, 2020-2021 School Year
Figure 2-15. Private Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Orientation, 2020-2021 School Year
Catholic Schools
Charter Schools
Table 2-32. Change in Enrollment, Charter versus Traditional District Public Schools, 2019-2020 to 2023-2024
Table 2-33. Charter School Enrollment Growth and Share by State, 2023-2024
Table 2-34. Public Charter Vs. Non-Charter Enrollment Growth, One-Year and Five-Year, Black, White, and Hispanic Students, 2023-2024
Home Schooling
Microschooling
Dual Enrollment
Table 2-35. Percentage of College Students Who Are Dual-Enrolled in High School by State, 2022-2023 School Year
Figure 2-16. Growth of Dual Enrollment, 1999-2021
Career and Technical Education
Table 2-36. Percentage of Public High School Graduates Earning CTE Credits by Race/Ethnicity
Table 2-37. Percentage of Public High School Graduates Earning CTE Credits by Gender
Virtual Schooling
Table 2-38. Number of Virtual Schools by Grade Level, 2018-2019 to 2022-2023
Connectivity in Schools
Figure 2-17. Districts and Students Meeting 1 Mbps Per Student Goal, 2015-2023
CHAPTER 3: BUDGET AND POLICY
FEDERAL FUNDING: 2025 BRINGS SIGNIFICANT CUTS
Fiscal 2025 Continuing Resolution Maintains 2024 Priorities
Table 3-1. Federal Elementary and Secondary Education Budget by Program Area, 2023, 2024 and 2025 Annualized CR, and 2025 Requests (in millions)
Table 3-2. Special Education and Rehabilitation Services Budget by Program Area, 2023, 2024 and 2025 Annualized CR, and 2025 Requests (in millions)
Table 3-3. Career and Technical Education Budget by Program Area, 2023, 2024 and 2025 Annualized CR, and 2025 Requests (in millions)
A New Administration: Cuts and Chaos
2025 Allocation Delays
ESSER Funding Reversal
Immediate Cuts to Education
FY 2026 Budget Proposal Confirms Priorities
Some Programs Escape Cuts
Budget Negotiations Underway
STATES AND DISTRICTS FACE NEW FUNDING REALITIES
Districts Deal with ESSER’s End
Labor Expenditures Are Difficult to Replace
Effectiveness of the Funding
The Educator’s Perspective
More Power to the States, But
State Expenses Outpace Revenues
Table 3-4. Public School Revenue Receipts Per Student in Fall Enrollment by State, 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 (dollars)
Table 3-5. Public School Current Expenditures Per Student in Fall Enrollment by State, 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 (dollars)
Table 3-6. Annual Percentage Change In General Fund Spending, by Number of States in Each Tier, Fiscal 2024 – Fiscal 2026
Ramifications of Federal Cuts
Table 3-7. How School Districts Use Medicaid Reimbursement Funds
State and Local Budget Pressures
Table 3-8. Growth in State Revenues, Fiscal Year 2024-2025
Population, Budget Woes Lead To Layoffs, School Closures
Table 3-9. Big School Districts Having Highest Concentrations of Schools with Plummeting Enrollment, 2019-2020 to 2021-2022 School Years
Changes to State Funding Formulas
State Funding Priorities
POLICY CHANGES GALORE
Changes From the Get-Go
The Future of Research
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Immigration
School Choice
Table 3-10. States with School Choice Programs by Type, 2024
Impacts of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill”
ACADEMIC POLICIES AND PRIORITIES IN FLUX
Protests, Opt-Outs, and Bans of Books and Curriculum
State and District Trends
Table 3-11. School Book Bans, 2021-2022 through 2023-2024 School Years
Legal Action
Freedom-to-Read Laws
Focus on Core Subjects: Literacy and Math
Table 3-12. Policy, Guidance, and Practices Supporting the Science of Reading by State, As of Mid-2025
Early Education
Career and Technical Education
Table 3-13. Top 10 Policy Areas Affecting CTE in 2024
Technology Takes a Front Seat
Integration of Artificial Intelligence
State Attention on AI
Table 3-14. District Tech Leaders’ Views on AI’s Potential for Positive Impact in Education
Table 3-15. Districts’ Generative AI Usage, 2024 and 2025
Table 3-16. K-12 Teachers’ Views of AI in the Classroom, 2023
Table 3-17. How Educators Rank the Benefits of AI in the Classroom
Computer Science
Media Literacy
Privacy and Infrastructure Trends
Other Tech Priorities
Table 3-18. District EdTech Initiatives, 2024
Assessments
Extended-Day Programs
Religion in Public School Instruction
Special Education
Competency-Based Education
Table 3-19. Competency-Based Education Policy by State, March 2025
NON-ACADEMIC POLICIES IMPACT SCHOOL CULTURE AND LEARNING
Teacher Shortages and Dissatisfaction
Table 3-20. Average Salaries of Public School Instructional Staff by State, 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 (dollars)
States Are Taking Action
Changing View of Uncertified Teachers
Reduction in Federal Support
Absenteeism and Population Shifts
Immigration Policies
Table 3-21. Share and Number of School-Aged Children in Immigrant Families by State, April 2025
Homelessness
Health, Behavior, and Safety
Social-Emotional Learning
School Shootings
Cell Phones and Social Media Use
Table 3-22. Percentage of US Adults Supporting Middle and High School Cell Phone Bans
State Action
Table 3-23. Statewide Policies on Cellphone Usage in K-12 Public School Classrooms, June 2025
School Bans
Social Media Usage
Cybersecurity and Privacy
Federal Policy
State and Local Policy
Infrastructure
DEI Policies’ Impact on the Ground: Transgender Students
Transgender Students and Sports
Use of Gender Pronouns and Bathrooms
CHAPTER 4: PREK-12 EDUCATIONAL PUBLISHERS COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
OPERATIONAL TRENDS IN 2024-2025
Trends and Challenges Facing Educators and Vendors
Federal Uncertainty
Political Divisions at the State Level
Budget Pressures Abound
The Promise and Pitfalls of AI
Continued Learning Loss
Career and Technical Education
Social-Emotional Learning and Other Non-Academic Needs
Staff Shortages and Teacher Burnout
How Companies Have Responded to the Trends
Boxlight
Cambium Learning
Cengage
Discovery Education
Goodheart-Willcox
HMH
Kahoot!
McGraw Hill
Pearson
PowerSchool
Renaissance Learning
Savvas Learning
Scholastic
Stride
PREK-12 COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN 2023 AND EARLY 2024
Revenue Trends in 2024
Table 4-1. Simba Information's PreK-12 Performance Index, Fiscal 2024
Individual Results Varied by Company
Financial Results Are Driven By Key Industry Trends
Looking Ahead to 2025
Table 4-2. PreK-12 Companies’ Revenue Outlook, Fiscal 2025 To Date
Digital Transition Continues, Driven by Artificial Intelligence
Cengage
McGraw Hill
Pearson
Table 4-3. Digital Products and Services as Share of Selected PreK Companies’ Revenue
STOCK PRICE TRENDS IN 2024-2025
Table 4-4. Education Company Stock Index, January 2, 2024-
PreK-12 Segment Outperforms Key Indexes Again in 2024
The First Quarter of 2025
Table 4-5. Public Education Company Stock Index, January 2, 2025 - March 31, 2025
Private Ownership Trend Continues
Going Against the Trends
M&A ACTIVITY IN 2024 AND EARLY 2025
M&A Activity in PreK-12 Education Continues to Decline
Table 4-6. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, Calendar Year 2024
Industry Trends Drive Acquisition Activity in 2024
Researchers Confirm Slowing of M&A Deals
A Peek Into Early 2025
Table 4-7. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, First Half of Calendar Year 2025
PRIVATE INVESTMENT FOCUSES ON EARLY-STAGE OPPORTUNITIES
Table 4-8: Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, Calendar Year 2024
Industry-wide, EdTech Investment Pegged as Flat to Down
First Quarter of 2025 Short on Equity Infusions
General Funds Enter the K-12 Market
Table 4-9. Selected Private Equity Investors in PreK-12 Education, 2024
CHAPTER 5: WHAT’S AHEAD FOR VENDORS OF K-12 INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS
CHALLENGING SALES TRENDS AHEAD
Figure 5-1. Spending Growth Rates by Expenditure Category, 2020-2024 to 2024-2027
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Artificial Intelligence
Eyes From Reading To Mathematics
Mental Health and Behavioral Supports
Career and Technical Education
Computer Science and Media Literacy
Tutoring and Extended-Day Programs
Language Learners
Evolving Assessments
Time Savings for Teachers
Localized Content
Support Products
SUPPLIER-SIDE CHALLENGES

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