Category: Travel & Leisure
Travel & Leisure market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Spain by 0.2ppts to 2.5% on the back of slightly weaker-than-expected Q1 figures and backward revisions to national accounts. Nevertheless, momentum remains solid despite the adverse global environment. Spain stands to be more insulated from the trade w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
We revised our short-term GDP growth forecast to 1.5% in 2025 due to lower growth expectations in the US post-liberation day tariffs. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains positive, as we believe this won't permanently affect growth. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Spain by 0.1ppt to 2.7% amid indications that economic activity remains strong despite the adverse global environment. Spain stands to be relatively more insulated from the current trade war with the US than other European countries, and activity will ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
The US administration's erratic trade policy prompts a downward revision of our GDP growth forecast for Greece. This primarily reflects reduced goods exports and fixed investment, as tariff-related uncertainty persuades firms to delay investment projects. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Italy slightly to 0.5% and lowered our projection for 2026 by 0.2ppts to 0.5%. Momentum likely improved in Q1, but heightened trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest, so we envisage slower growth further ahead. We think the US will m ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We kept our growth forecast for Italy to 0.4% this year and 0.7% in 2026. GDP growth was 0.1% in Q4 2024, marginally above the poor reading for Q3. We assume the US will hit Europe with 10% tariffs. Fiscal policy remains a drag, although we assume an increase in military spending over the medium ter ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
A solid end of 2024 set the stage for the Greek economy to grow at a faster pace than the Eurozone average in 2025, as we project GDP will expand by 2.1%. Investments remain the main driver of growth, boosted by the Next Generation EU funds. Net exports dragged on the economy in 2024, but this shoul ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Our GDP growth forecast for Spain is unchanged at 2.6% this month. We've maintained our strong outlook even though we assume that the US will impose tariffs on the EU over the coming months, as Spain stands to be one of the least affected countries. Spain will remain one of the fastest-growing e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The We expect real GDP growth for the Bahamas will cool to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.1% this year. This fall in growth reflects the convergence of the economy towards its medium-term potential. Consistent with this view, we forecast inflation will settle at 2% ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla We have marginally revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Anguilla by 0.1ppt to 4.7% y/y. Tourism continues to drive growth, alongside the exponential increase in demand for the country's domain name '.ai' and the anticipated gradual imp ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Antigua and Barbuda by 1.4ppts to 2.8% y/y. We think the momentum from the post-pandemic recovery in tourism numbers will subside and growth levels will be closer to the economy's long-run poten ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada We have cut our 2025 growth forecast for Grenada by 0.4ppts to 3.7%. We think this summer's Hurricane Beryl, which wrecked infrastructure and housing in the northern islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique, will leave a lasting mark on the supply si ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe We have revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Guadeloupe by 1.7ppts to 2.7%, as growth in tourism continues to drive exports. Although inflation is expected to decline to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, we don't anticipate a strong recovery in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico We lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Federal funds from disaster-relief programs and pandemic stimulus that buoyed infrastructure projects and private consumption will continue to fade. Still, resilient demand from mainland ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica We have doubled our 2024 GDP forecast for Dominica to 4.2% and expect robust growth of 3.1% next year. Our forecast reflects strong near-term prospects due a major recovery in tourism, high public investment, and strong Citizenship-by-Investment revenues ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Lucia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Lucia We have upgraded our 2024 growth forecast for Saint Lucia by 1.5ppts to 4.9% y/y, given record-breaking tourism figures throughout the year. We forecast the economy to continue to grow in 2025 at a rate of 4.8% y/y based on expectations of a record crui ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba We cut Cuba’s 2025 GDP growth forecast by 1.6ppts to 1.9%, following an estimated 0.9% contraction this year. Disruptions at the country’s largest thermoelectric plant and reduced fuel shipments from Russia and Venezuela caused widespread blackouts, while ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines We trimmed our GDP growth forecast for St Vincent and the Grenadines by 0.4ppts to 4.5% y/y for 2024 and 0.3ppts to 2.9%y/y for 2025 because of damage caused by Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in July. The impact of Beryl this year is li ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands Historical data revisions and a significantly stronger-than-expected demographic outlook led us to raise our short- and medium-term forecasts for the Cayman Islands. We now expect GDP will grow by 1.9% next year before slowing down to 1.6% in 2026. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania We have raised our raised 2024 Albania GDP forecast by 0.7ppts to 3.6% and our 2025 forecast by 0.3ppts to 3.5%. This is driven by a strong construction sector – evidenced by rising confidence and strong annual output growth – and a booming tourism sector ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK) We forecast the British Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US econom ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malaysia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2024, increasing by 3.5%, picking up to 4.6% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Aruba
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Aruba We have upgraded our 2024 GDP forecast for Aruba by 0.8ppts to 2.2% y/y growth. This adjustment is driven by the resilience of the US economy, which accounts for over 80% of Aruba's overseas visitors, thereby boosting tourism activity. Arrivals are ... Read More
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