Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
The US-Canada trade war will push Canada's economy into a recession that will spill over into early 2026. We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Canada by 0.3ppts to 1.1% in 2025 and now expect no growth in 2026, compared to 1.6% growth last month. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We've lowered our forecast for GDP growth in France in 2025 by 0.1ppt to 0.5% as global trade uncertainty is weighing on business investment even more than we initially anticipated. In 2026, we continue to expect a modest rebound in activity, with GDP growth reaching 1%. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 1ppt to 2.9%, following a 3.2% expansion last year. The higher projection for this year reflects better-than-expected growth at the end of 2024, which boosted the carryover, and limited evidence of activity slowing at the start of this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.4ppts to 2% to reflect the weaker start to the year, adjustments to our tariff assumptions, and the relentless policy uncertainty. We raised our forecast for the unemployment rate due to the large reduction in federal employment. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Our GDP growth forecast for Spain is unchanged at 2.6% this month. We've maintained our strong outlook even though we assume that the US will impose tariffs on the EU over the coming months, as Spain stands to be one of the least affected countries. Spain will remain one of the fastest-growing e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 2.5% for 2025 and 2% for 2026. Portugal's government unexpectedly collapsed, with a snap election likely to occur in May. We don't think the renewed political crisis will derail an otherwise solid economic outlook supported b ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
The economy contracted by 0.4% in Q4 2024 following data revisions, the eighth consecutive quarterly decline, shrinking by 1.5% over the course of last year. The data paint a picture of an economy in recession, dragged down by a struggling export sector. In the last quarter, positive contributions c ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We continue to expect the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. However, we have adjusted our assumption on EU military spending, which we think will gradually increase to 3% of GDP by end of the decade. This prompted us to raise our GDP projections slightly from next year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025, down 0.7ppts from last year. Private consumption will continue to be the main driver, supported by low inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a stable labor market. However, we expect net trade to drag on the economy, g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
We have halved our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico to 0.7% to reflect heightened tariff uncertainty. The economy could still narrowly avoid a technical recession in Q1 due to base effects, but activity will remain subdued. Our growth forecast is now marginally below the consensus projection of 0 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia
We maintain our upbeat view on the Cambodian economy. We expect GDP growth of 6.3% y/y in 2025, up from an estimated 6% in 2024. Downside risks remain present, but we see the overall growth outlook as positive, given higher investment and the recovery of private consumption. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
The Kenyan government has raised its projected expenditure for the 2024/25 fiscal year (FY, July to June) to KSh3.98trn, underscoring ongoing difficulties in managing its public finances. Following the withdrawal of the 2024 Finance Bill, government spending was initially trimmed by 2.8% to KSh3.88t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
We've increased our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 6.9% from 6.3% as some of last year's strong growth momentum will have spilled over to this year. Domestic demand rose quickly in H2 2024 on a combination of positive factors – the development of new transport and foreign trade l ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
The Zambian economy started the year on the back foot, clipped by elevated drought-related import needs, a weak kwacha exchange rate, and escalating inflation. Yet, a precipitation-induced economic recovery is possible. Despite a delayed start to the rainy season, water levels are rising, strengthen ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Geopolitical tensions and a reconstruction plan for Gaza took centre stage during the past month. At an emergency Arab League summit in Egypt on March 4, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and the leaders of several Arab nations presented a reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip. The plan is a positive ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Speaking at the UK Treasury Select Committee this week, members of the Monetary Policy Committee largely confirmed our priors about whether they think the recent weakness in UK activity was mainly demand- or supply-driven. We think the 'cut-hold' approach to loosening policy is likely to con ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Our updated estimates of neutral interest rates for emerging market economies show that although most have risen since September 2023, the median increase has only been around ten basis points. Three countries that have had higher long-run inflation forecast revisions – Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico – ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s new finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, will present the 2025 Budget to Parliament on March 11. This will mark the first full-year budget under the new Mahama administration, following a GHȼ68bn provisional budget approved in January for first-quarter government spending. In February, an I ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week. Though the initial duties on March 4 were eventually watered down, tariff rates on Canada and Mexico have still ended up at double-digit levels, a substantial increase from before. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Our forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2025 has been upgraded to 4.4%, up from the previous estimate of 3.9%. This revision follows OPEC+’s decision to increase supply from Q2 onwards, earlier than both our and market expectations of Q3 2025. However, non-oil activities will remain the p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 4.7%, driven entirely by the latest OPEC+ agreement to gradually unwind production cuts starting in Q2. Although oil prices remain under pressure, the increase in production will support growth in the oil sector, particularly as the UAE continue ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Mali's real GDP growth last year surprised to the upside at 5.0% – higher than our prediction of 4.6%. Robust fixed investment inflows were the largest driver of the higher annual print, while a slowdown in exports dragged on growth. We forecast real GDP growth to slow over the next two years, r ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Japan
We've nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. We expect the economy will be supported by gradual improvements in consumption alongside real income gains, but weaker external demand will weigh on the growth. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
The ongoing war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's eighth consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After nearly two years of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan's main paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the chances of an end to the war ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
We raised our GDP growth forecast for Belarus by 0.4ppts to 2.4% y/y for 2025 from 2% y/y. Our revisions reflect continuing momentum in domestic demand, exports, and private consumption. This trend is set to moderate as exports slow in H2 as Russian import-substitution weighs on exports from Belarus ... Read More
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