Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Middle class opportunities are increasingly coming from markets with more balanced growth drivers, and less dependency on commodity exports. So an effective Asia strategy will be key for companies to capitalize on the largest scale and fastest growth of mi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Lebanon faces a war that might be broader in scope than the one between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. After killing Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, in an attack on Beirut over the weekend, Israel looks poised to launch ground raids into ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom National accounts revisions confirmed that the UK's post-pandemic recovery was slightly stronger than initially thought. But a big downward revision to the saving ratio suggests less scope for dissaving from the household sector, so we plan to nudge down ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jordan to 1.6% down from 2.6% in 2023, underpinned by the ongoing regional conflict. Data for Q1 2024 shows a continued contraction in GDP for the second consecutive quarter on quarterly terms. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though monthly UK GDP data suggest the upturn may be faltering, recent outturns have been very noisy at a sectoral level, and we think the economy continues to carry solid momentum. So we have maintained our forecast that GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets A positive lesson from the recent global volatility is that EM bonds and FX appear partially insulated when the risk-off is associated with declining US inflation expectations and a weakening greenback. Furthermore, we see an upside risk for EM bond return ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Business survey data suggests that UK activity has continued to grow at a solid pace in Q3. The composite PMI is running at a similar level to H1 2024, though the patchy relationship with official output data suggests we shouldn't take these results too ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Prolonged monetary policy hawkishness presents a significant risk to demand growth across emerging markets (EMs). In the short run, central banks can justify tight policies as progress on disinflation has slowed and because of heightened financial market v ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our aggregate 2024 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) is unchanged at 4%, but we have nudged down our projection for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 3.9% as external headwinds are mounting. Real activity indicators suggest a sof ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week has seen substantial volatility in global financial markets, but we think the implications for the UK economy are limited. The UK sell-off has been relatively modest. We also think there's a good chance that equity prices will recover because f ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR A strong export-led start to the year led us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Hong Kong's growth to 3.6%. In 2025, while we've pencilled in sequential moderation in growth, favourable base effects will push y/y growth to 4.1%. This is cons ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The first business surveys of Q3 provided more evidence that the UK economic recovery has now taken root. While it's still early days, our forecast that q/q GDP growth is likely to remain solid in Q3, albeit slightly slower than in Q2, remains on track. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Governments' reputations for meeting fiscal projections have recovered significantly since the bashing they took during the Covid period, according to our scorecard based on the misses from fiscal ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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