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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Oct 27, 2025
Length 7 Pages
SKU # OFE20535924

Description

Algeria’s most recent Article IV Consultation report from the IMF, and our near-term economic outlook for the country, remain broadly optimistic. However, the draft Finance Bill for 2026 paints a bleaker picture, especially concerning fiscal finances. Algeria continues to prioritise military spending over fiscal consolidation and, perhaps even more concerning, over economic diversification and economic prosperity. The budget for next year indicates that the fiscal deficit is likely to remain in the double digits over the medium term. Previously, the country could rely on the Revenue Regulation Fund (RRF) to finance the fiscal deficit, but the fund was depleted in 2024. As a result, Algeria is about to offer its first-ever sukuk bond.

Table of Contents

7 Pages
Algeria: Fiscal finances spiralling out of control
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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