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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 09, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20650285

Description

We've raised our forecast for real GDP growth in the US in 2026 by 0.1ppt to 2.5% to reflect improved consumer spending. Growth in real disposable income, the key driver for spending anywhere in the income distribution, has slowed but will perk up next year. The surge in financial wealth has taken over as a powerful tailwind for spending, but this impulse will fade next year.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
US: Consumer spending will support the economy in 2026
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Policy
Politics

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