We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.1ppt to 1.1% to reflect a larger-than-expected fall in activity in April. We still expect growth will slow to 0.9% in 2026. Domestic headwinds, including fiscal policy being tightened significantly and the lagged impact of past interest rate rises continuing to emerge, have been supplemented by the impact of US trade policy. We therefore expect the pace of UK growth will remain weak.
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