Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

We’ve lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.8ppts to 1.2%. However, this paints a brighter picture of how the economy will fare this year because this figure is flattered by a favorable base effect. We forecast average annualized GDP growth this year will be 0.5%, leaving the economy vulnerable to anything else that goes wrong.


UK: Tariff announcements dent the growth outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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