We've slightly increased our GDP growth forecasts for the US by 0.1ppt to 1.3% in 2025 and to 1.7% in 2026. The economy will still grow noticeably below its potential growth rate as it digests tariffs, supply-chain stress, tighter financial market conditions, and surging policy uncertainty. Recession risks will be elevated between now and early next year. Good things are in the pipeline for the economy next year from deregulation, fiscal stimulus, and less policy uncertainty.
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