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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Sep 30, 2025
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE20535963

Description

Ukraine's war economy continues to be supported by domestic defence manufacturing and spending, with a tight labour market driving consumer demand. Meanwhile, agriculture remains an important source of volatility. We still expect GDP growth of 2.1% y/y in 2025, but better-than-expected recovery in August poses upside risk to our forecast. In 2026, we think the war will continue and GDP growth will remain moderate at 2.3% y/y.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: Strong harvest generates temporary GDP rebound
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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