Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Description
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
A 5.4% q/q fall in Irish GDP in Q4 2021 was surprisingly weak. But the drop was driven by a surge in intellectual property imports by multinationals, exaggerating the underlying weakness. A spike in Q4 imports is likely to reverse, causing GDP growth to rebound in early 2022. But the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy prices is pushing inflation higher and will weigh on growth. Overall, we still expect GDP to grow by close to 4% this year, similar to last month's forecast, followed by a rise of around 3.5% in 2023.
A 5.4% q/q fall in Irish GDP in Q4 2021 was surprisingly weak. But the drop was driven by a surge in intellectual property imports by multinationals, exaggerating the underlying weakness. A spike in Q4 imports is likely to reverse, causing GDP growth to rebound in early 2022. But the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy prices is pushing inflation higher and will weigh on growth. Overall, we still expect GDP to grow by close to 4% this year, similar to last month's forecast, followed by a rise of around 3.5% in 2023.
Table of Contents
10 Pages
- Ireland: Impact of war in Ukraine clouds the outlook
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
Pricing
Currency Rates
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