Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany

We left our near-term forecasts largely unchanged this month at 0% GDP growth for this year and 0.9% for 2026, with inflation at 2.2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. This stability reflects that GDP grew by the expected 0.2% q/q in Q1, that our tariff assumptions haven't changed, and that the new German government, having entered office, hasn't yet revealed any policy changes.


Germany: Solid Q1 GDP growth may not last
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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