India - Defense and Security: Modernization drives the high growth potential market (Strategy, Performance and Risk Analysis)
The aircraft category is a key growth driver of the Indian defense and security industry, accounting for 28.6% of capital expenditure in 2016; followed by the C4ISR electronics and IT category with 16.8%. Defense spending recorded a review-period CAGR of 3.4% to reach US$38.9 billion in 2016 and will post a forecast-period CAGR of 6.6% to reach US$55.4 billion in 2021, primarily driven by government initiatives to modernize the defense sector by adopting advanced technology and developing its domestic military hardware manufacturing capabilities.
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India’s defense imports declined:
India, the world’s largest arms importer, acquired ammunition worth US$2.5 billion in 2016; in 2013, the value was US$5.2 billion. Imports have since declined and will post a forecast-period CAGR of 13.05%. In part the decline will be caused by India’s ambition to develop in-house capabilities under its flagship Make in India initiative.
India maintains strong international relations:
Russia has been the main source of India’s defense imports and 2014 Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed deals worth billions of dollars when President Putin visited India. India is diversifying its imports by focusing on agreements with Israel, the US, the UK and France and signed a US$3 billion with Boeing to purchase Chinook and Apache helicopters. The DRDO is also collaborating with Israel Aerospace Industries to develop a Barak 8 Anti-Missile Defense system.
India’s spending on homeland security to increase:
In 2016, the budget for homeland security increased by 11.11%, from US$9.9 billion in 2015 to US$11.0 billion in 2016. It will post a forecast-period CAGR of 6.15% to reach US$15.9 billion in 2021, owing to the threat of cross border terrorism, insurgencies in the form of separatists in Jammu and Kashmir, and left wing extremists. To counter these threats, the government will invest in surveillance and monitoring equipment, global positioning systems, radars and biometric systems.