
Banking Market In Poland 2023-2025, CEE Banking Series
Description
Banking Market In Poland 2023-2025, CEE Banking Series
Banking sector in Poland.
The surge in market interest rates, rising from zero to approximately 6.5% in 2022, had a profound impact on the banking sector in Poland. The escalating cost of money significantly influenced the new investment demand of corporations, while simultaneously limiting the capacity of individuals to secure new loans. Conversely, the notably higher interest rates, though still below inflation, spurred interest in depositing funds in banks. Consequently, overall client deposits at banks reached PLN 1.92 trillion in Q2 2023, reflecting an 11%+ change over 1½ years since the end of 2021. Concurrently, client loans experienced a contraction of over 2%, decreasing from PLN 1.29 trillion at the close of 2021 to PLN 1.26 trillion in Q2 2023. However, the impact of higher interest rates has proven overall beneficial for banks thus far. In 2022, banks operating in Poland recorded PLN 93 billion in net revenue (EUR 20 billion) and realized PLN 10.8 billion in net profits (EUR 2.4 billion). The effect of higher interest rates has positively influenced the net interest margin of banks and is anticipated to continue, at least until the growing cost of risk offsets it. The benchmarks for Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) for the total market improved in 2022 to 0.41% and 5.4%, respectively and they are expected to improve further in 2023.
Table of Contents
104 Pages
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 2: Poland - General overview
- Slide 3: Poland vs. other consumer markets in Europe, 2022
- Slide 4: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2018-2023F
- Slide 5: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2018-2023F
- Slide 6: Unemployment, wages & salaries, 2018-2023F
- Slide 7: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2017-Sep.2023
- 2.1. Banking market - General trends
- Slide 8: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2020-2022
- Slide 9: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2022
- Slide 10: Structure of the Polish Banking Sector - types of banks and their size/count, 1H2023
- Slide 11: Evolution of banking assets by groups of owners (domestic/foreign), 2019-1H2023
- Slide 12: Top 10 foreign investors in the Polish banking market, 2022
- Slide 13: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2018-1H2023
- Slide 14: Banking assets evolution by groups of banks, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 15: Top 10 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 1H2023
- Slide 16: Evolution of market shares for top commercial banks, 2016-1H2023
- Slide 17: Concentration of the banking market, 2021 vs. 2022 (Assets, HH Index)
- Slide 18: Deposits of non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 19: Loans to non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 20: Non-performing loans value and NPL ratios by type of business segment, 2020-Jun.2023
- Slide 21: Non-performing retail loans, ratios by type of product, 2007-1H2023
- Slide 22: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, Jan. 2019- Oct. 2023
- Slide 23: Inter-bank interest rates, Jan 2013 – Sep. 2023: (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
- Slide 24: Tier 1 capital, CAR ratio for banks, 2020-Jun. 2023
- Slide 25: Bank outlets by groups of bank, agencies, 2018-2023
- Slide 26: Employment in commercial banks, bank assets per employee evolution, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 27: Direct employee costs evolution, 2017-2022
- Slide 28: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, ATM players, 1H2023
- Slide 29: POS number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, POS players, 2022
- 3. Retail banking
- Slide 30: Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 31: Household deposits evolution, split local vs. foreign currency, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 32: Household deposits by type (current vs. term) and by client sub-segments, 2021-1H2023
- Slide 33: TOP banks serving household sector, market shares, 1H2023
- Slide 34: Payment account penetration in Poland, Bank account holders demography, 2020
- Slide 35: Bank account penetration & gap: Poland vs. other Europe, 2021
- Slide 36: Number of customers and number of current accounts of individuals (ROR) at major banks, 1H2023
- Slide 37: Retail deposits at major retail banks. Average deposit per single (current) account, 1H2023
- Slide 38: Total retail accounts at major banks - recent evolution, 2015-1H2023
- Slide 39: Internet use and Internet users in Poland, 2022
- Slide 40: Total number of accounts with online and mobile access, 2016-2022
- Slide 41: Top banks by number of active mobile app users, 2022
- Slide 42: Key mobile payment services in Poland classified by origin of funds, 2023
- Slide 43: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 44: Investment funds - top 10 players, September 2023
- Slide 45: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 46: Loans to household sector by type, evolution, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 47: Mortgage to household sector by currency- outstanding value, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 48: Mortgage to household sector – new sales, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 49: Consumer lending outstanding evolution, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 50: Consumer lending – new sales, 2020- 1H2023
- 3.1. Payment cards
- Slide 51: Cards issued by type, 2018-1Q 2023
- Slide 52: Cards payments: Poland vs. Europe, growth vs. market development stage, 2019-2021
- Slide 53: Cards payments: International comparison, card payments value, volume, cards issued, 2021
- Slide 54: Card transactions by type (cashless, cash), share of cash transactions, 2018-2022
- Slide 55: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2018-2022
- Slide 56: Top players in credit cards business - issuers, co-branding partners, 1H2023
- 4. Corporate banking
- Slide 57: Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2021
- Slide 58: Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2016-2022
- Slide 59: Number of companies by turnover (companies with 10+ employees), 2022
- Slide 60: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2018-1H2023
- Slide 61: Top players in the corporate banking market, market shares in deposits and loans, 1H2023
- Slide 62: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2016-2022
- Slide 63: Factoring market, top players, 2018-2022
- Slide 64: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2018-2022
- 5. Banks' profitability
- Slide 65: Nominal rates on loans and deposits by segment, implied interest margins, Jan. 2020-Sep.2023
- Slide 66: Commercial banks - profitability tree, 2019-2022
- Slide 67: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree – peers comparison, 2022 (PKO, Pekao, Santander, mBank, ING)
- Slide 68: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
- Slide 69: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
- Slide 70: Commercial banks - revenue, costs and profits composition, 2022
- 6. Banks' valuation and M&A activity
- Slide 71: Share price performance in the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, Jan. 2020– Oct. 2023
- Slide 72: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
- Slide 73: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
- Slide 74: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 1H2023
- Slide 75: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (1/4), 2005-2008
- Slide 76: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (2/4), 2009-2011
- Slide 77: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/4), 2012-2016
- Slide 78: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (4/4), 2017-
- 7. Top 5 banks - Profiles
- Slide 79-80: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
- Slide 81-82: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
- Slide 83-84: Bank profiles: Santander
- 8. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 85: Forecast - household loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
- Slide 86: Forecast - corporate loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
- Slide 87: Forecast - banking assets, 2023-2025F
- 9. Notes on methodology
Pricing
Currency Rates
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