European 5G RedCap IoT Connectivity Market Forecast, 2025–2029

This IDC Market Forecast offers a comprehensive analysis of 5G reduced capability (RedCap), detailing its emergence as the critical "missing middle" in cellular IoT connectivity. It provides a five-year forecast for RedCap connections and spending in Europe, examines the market context that necessitated its development, outlines the key drivers and inhibitors to its adoption, and offers strategic advice for technology suppliers navigating this evolving landscape."Positioned as the critical 5G evolution for the middle of the IoT market, RedCap promises targeted enhancements in efficiency and cost. While it will accelerate IoT development and serve as a vital migration path, much of its transformative effect will be felt in the years to come, rather than immediately." — Research Director John Gole, IoT, IDC Europe


IDC Market Forecast Figure

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Prioritize Cost Reduction and Power Optimization

Enable and Accelerate 5G Standalone (5G SA) Network Deployments and Feature Enablement

Empower Cost-Effective Private 5G Network Deployments

Develop Vertical-Specific Solutions and Reference Designs

Facilitate a Smooth LTE Migration Path for IoT Devices

Champion Realistic Market Education and Awareness

Market Forecast

Market Context

The Diverse and Segmented IoT Connectivity Market

RedCap's Emergence: The Missing Piece of the 5G IoT Puzzle

Drivers and Inhibitors

Drivers

Optimized Cost-Performance-Power Profile

Efficient Migration Path for LTE IoT Use Cases

Accelerating Ecosystem Maturity and Module Cost Reduction

Inhibitors

Initial Higher Module Cost vs. LTE-M/NB-IoT/LTE Cat-1

Limited 5G Network Readiness

Significant Market Developments

Changes from Prior Forecast

Market Definition

Report-Specific Terminology

Key Definitions

Methodology

Research Approach

Forecasting Methodology and Market Model

Related Research

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