Food Affordability and Global Stability
Description
The Food Affordability and Global Stability report analyses how rising food prices and declining household purchasing power are reshaping economic resilience and political stability worldwide. As food costs become a larger share of total consumer expenditure—particularly in lower-income and import-dependent economies—food affordability has re-emerged as a critical constraint on living standards, public trust, and national security. The report positions food affordability as a structural risk factor, not merely a short-term inflation story, and evaluates the conditions under which food stress escalates into social disruption.
The report examines the main drivers of food affordability deterioration, including supply chain fragility, climate-linked yield disruption, fertiliser and energy price volatility, trade restrictions, currency weakness, and conflict-related shocks. It assesses how these pressures interact with domestic economic conditions—such as wages, subsidies, and fiscal capacity—to determine household exposure. Regional dynamics are explored across both emerging and advanced economies, with emphasis on where inflation transmission is strongest and where policy buffers are weakest.
Finally, the report evaluates how food stress connects to wider stability outcomes, including protest risk, migration pressures, institutional strain, and rising political polarisation. It highlights early-warning indicators and policy responses ranging from subsidy structures and social protection measures to trade policy interventions and strategic reserves. The report concludes with a forward-looking outlook and recommendations for governments, investors, humanitarian actors, and businesses managing systemic affordability risk in a more volatile global food system.
The report examines the main drivers of food affordability deterioration, including supply chain fragility, climate-linked yield disruption, fertiliser and energy price volatility, trade restrictions, currency weakness, and conflict-related shocks. It assesses how these pressures interact with domestic economic conditions—such as wages, subsidies, and fiscal capacity—to determine household exposure. Regional dynamics are explored across both emerging and advanced economies, with emphasis on where inflation transmission is strongest and where policy buffers are weakest.
Finally, the report evaluates how food stress connects to wider stability outcomes, including protest risk, migration pressures, institutional strain, and rising political polarisation. It highlights early-warning indicators and policy responses ranging from subsidy structures and social protection measures to trade policy interventions and strategic reserves. The report concludes with a forward-looking outlook and recommendations for governments, investors, humanitarian actors, and businesses managing systemic affordability risk in a more volatile global food system.
Table of Contents
26 Pages
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Food Affordability: Definitions and Core Metrics
- 3. Global Food Price Dynamics (2020–Present)
- 4. Drivers of Affordability Pressure (Energy, Fertiliser, FX, Trade, Climate)
- 5. Regional Exposure and Vulnerability Hotspots
- 6. Household Impact: Purchasing Power and Consumption Shifts
- 7. Stability Linkages: Unrest, Migration, and Political Risk
- 8. Government Responses (Subsidies, Price Controls, Safety Nets)
- 9. Future Outlook and Scenario Analysis
- 10. Strategic Recommendations
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