Strategic Intelligence: Banking Predictions 2026
Description
Strategic Intelligence: Banking Predictions 2026
Summary This report identifies the 10 key themes that will impact the banking industry in 2026. For each theme, we offer a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and suggest further reading.
Within bank fraud and cybersecurity, a particular challenge is that in the near term we expect malicious actors to be the prime beneficiaries of AI. Unconstrained by regulation, ethics, and consumer trust, these bad actors will be able to experiment freely to increase the volume, velocity, and variety of attacks. Meanwhile, new entrants will be able to build AI-native experiences unconstrained by legacy, particularly in the area of autonomous finance, driving cost and user experience advantages over incumbents. And ecommerce giants, with their undeniable AI superiority, will bring those capabilities deeper into banking through embedded finance.
Scope
Summary This report identifies the 10 key themes that will impact the banking industry in 2026. For each theme, we offer a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and suggest further reading.
Within bank fraud and cybersecurity, a particular challenge is that in the near term we expect malicious actors to be the prime beneficiaries of AI. Unconstrained by regulation, ethics, and consumer trust, these bad actors will be able to experiment freely to increase the volume, velocity, and variety of attacks. Meanwhile, new entrants will be able to build AI-native experiences unconstrained by legacy, particularly in the area of autonomous finance, driving cost and user experience advantages over incumbents. And ecommerce giants, with their undeniable AI superiority, will bring those capabilities deeper into banking through embedded finance.
Scope
- In 2026, banks will spend billions more on AI but will continue to be frustrated by the time it takes (and money it costs) to deliver concrete return on investment, driving a focus on metrics such as containment rate and customer satisfaction to maintain momentum.
- Bank fraud will increase at a faster rate than in previous years, across a variety of new attack vectors, making it harder to protect consumers just as it becomes more important to do so.
- Mortgage market share will redistribute more sharply away from under-digitized incumbent providers, toward a variety of new digital-first entrants, as incumbents will struggle to balance tactical time-to-market imperatives against long-term strategic considerations.
- This report is essential for senior executives at financial services companies seeking to understand how the top 10 banking themes will drive competitive distance between leading providers of consumer financial services across the next 12 months.
- Understand the wide-ranging impact of AI across all key themes.
- Learn how the impact of ESG on banking strategies is changing and evolving.
Table of Contents
33 Pages
- Executive Summary
- Top Themes for 2026
- Viewing the world’s data by theme helps you make important decisions
- Artificial Intelligence
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Bank Fraud
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Cybersecurity
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Digital Lending
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Embedded Finance
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Digital Banking
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- ESG – Environmental
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Regulation
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Autonomous Finance
- What will happen
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Ecommerce
- What will happen.
- Why (and why now)
- What it will mean, and what you should do
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Further Reading
- GlobalData reports
- Our Thematic Research Methodology
- Report Authors
- About GlobalData
- Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: GlobalData reports
- Table 2: Report Authors:
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The 10 biggest themes driving growth in 2026
- Figure 2: Retail banks are finding that AI ROI takes longer and costs more
- Figure 3: 28% of global consumers have experienced fraud in the last 18 months
- Figure 4: AI and digital identity dominate bank technology investment priorities in 2025
- Figure 5: Non-main bank providers have made significant inroads in the mortgage space
- Figure 6: Retail banks are pursuing a wide range of lending opportunities
- Figure 7: New digital banks will continue with revenue diversification
- Figure 8: Regional variations shape AI regulation globally
- Figure 9: Multi-agent orchestration will enable automated finance
- Figure 10: The global value of ecommerce transactions across all sectors will reach $7.9 trillion in 2028
- Figure 11: Our approach to identifying the companies most likely to succeed in a sector over the next five years
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