Poland Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2029 (Q3 2025)
Description
Poland Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2029 (Q3 2025)
Summary
GlobalData expects the construction industry in Poland to shrink in real terms by 0.9% in 2025, owing to headwinds such as falling building permits, high labor costs, rising budget deficit, and falling exports. According to Statistics Poland (GUS), the total floor area of building permits issued in the country fell by 6.3% year-on-year (YoY) in the first six months of 2025, with that for residential buildings falling by 8.3% YoY and that for non-residential buildings falling by 3.3% YoY, over the same period. Poland’s weak public finances are also expected to weigh on the industry’s output this year. According to the Ministry of Finance, the country had a budget deficit of PLN172 billion ($42.5 billion) at the end of August 2025 - up from that of PLN156.7 billion ($38.7 billion) at the end of July 2025. In early September 2025, the credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings revised down Poland’s sovereign outlook from stable to negative, owing to swelling deficits that is expected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2025 - up from up from 6.6% in 2024, and 5.3% in 2023.
The industry is however expected to rebound at an average annual rate of 3.9% from 2026 to 2029, owing to slowing inflation and falling interest rates, coupled with investments in the transport infrastructure and renewable energy sector. In July 2025, the government approved Poland's draft update of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) until 2030, with a longer-term outlook to 2040. As part of the plan, the government aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, compared to 1990 levels, by 53.9% by 2030; this is an increase from the previous target of 50.4% and is closer to the EU-wide 55% reduction target established under the European Climate Law. The plan also outlines a target to have renewable energy account for 51.8% of the electricity mix by 2030, and 79.8% by 2040.
GlobalData’s Construction in Poland - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2029 (Q3 2025) report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into the Polish construction industry, including -
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Poland. It provides -
Summary
GlobalData expects the construction industry in Poland to shrink in real terms by 0.9% in 2025, owing to headwinds such as falling building permits, high labor costs, rising budget deficit, and falling exports. According to Statistics Poland (GUS), the total floor area of building permits issued in the country fell by 6.3% year-on-year (YoY) in the first six months of 2025, with that for residential buildings falling by 8.3% YoY and that for non-residential buildings falling by 3.3% YoY, over the same period. Poland’s weak public finances are also expected to weigh on the industry’s output this year. According to the Ministry of Finance, the country had a budget deficit of PLN172 billion ($42.5 billion) at the end of August 2025 - up from that of PLN156.7 billion ($38.7 billion) at the end of July 2025. In early September 2025, the credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings revised down Poland’s sovereign outlook from stable to negative, owing to swelling deficits that is expected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2025 - up from up from 6.6% in 2024, and 5.3% in 2023.
The industry is however expected to rebound at an average annual rate of 3.9% from 2026 to 2029, owing to slowing inflation and falling interest rates, coupled with investments in the transport infrastructure and renewable energy sector. In July 2025, the government approved Poland's draft update of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) until 2030, with a longer-term outlook to 2040. As part of the plan, the government aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, compared to 1990 levels, by 53.9% by 2030; this is an increase from the previous target of 50.4% and is closer to the EU-wide 55% reduction target established under the European Climate Law. The plan also outlines a target to have renewable energy account for 51.8% of the electricity mix by 2030, and 79.8% by 2040.
GlobalData’s Construction in Poland - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2029 (Q3 2025) report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into the Polish construction industry, including -
- The Polish construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Polish construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Poland. It provides -
- Historical (2020-2024) and forecast (2025-2029) valuations of the construction industry in Poland, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using our standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts
- Understand the latest industry and market trends
- Formulate and validate business strategies using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors
Table of Contents
54 Pages
- 1 Executive Summary
- 2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance
- 3 Context
- 3.1 Economic Performance
- 3.2 Political Environment and Policy
- 3.3 Demographics
- 3.4 Risk Profile
- 4 Construction Outlook
- 4.1 All Construction
- Outlook
- Latest news and developments
- Construction Projects Momentum Index
- 4.2 Commercial Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.3 Industrial Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.4 Infrastructure Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.6 Institutional Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.7 Residential Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 5 Key Industry Participants
- 5.1 Contractors
- 5.2 Consultants
- 6 Construction Market Data
- 7 Appendix
- 7.1 What is this Report About?
- 7.2 Definitions
- 7.3 CRI Methodology
- 8 About GlobalData
- 9 Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
- Table 2: Poland, Key Economic Indicators
- Table 3: Poland, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020–29
- Table 4: Poland, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value
- Table 5: Poland, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020–29
- Table 6: Poland, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value
- Table 7: Poland, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 8: Poland, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value
- Table 9: Poland, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 10: Poland, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value
- Table 11: Poland, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 12: Poland, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value
- Table 13: Poland, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 14: Poland, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value
- Table 15: Poland, Key Contractors
- Table 16: Poland, Key Consultants
- Table 17: Poland, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million)
- Table 18: Poland, Construction Output Value (Nominal, PLN Million)
- Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
- Table 20: Risk Dimensions
- Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2023–29
- Figure 2: Poland, Construction Output by Sector (Real % Change), 2023–25 and 2026–29
- Figure 3: Poland, Risk Summary
- Figure 4: Poland, Risk Regional Comparison
- Figure 5: Poland, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million, 2022 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2020–29
- Figure 6: Poland, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, $ Million), 2020–29
- Figure 7: Poland, Construction Value-add (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 8: Poland, Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Construction Industry (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 9: Poland, Employment in the Construction Industry, In Thousands
- Figure 10: Poland, Construction Production Index (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2021=100, % Change, YoY)
- Figure 11: Poland, Labor Cost Index for Construction (2020=100)
- Figure 12: Poland, Building Permits - m2 of Useful Floor Area (2021=100)
- Figure 13: Poland, Construction Projects Momentum Index
- Figure 14: Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Construction Projects Momentum Index
- Figure 15: Poland, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020–29
- Figure 16: Poland, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 17: Poland, Wholesale and Retail Trade Value-Add (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 18: Poland, Foreign Tourist Arrivals and Overnight Stays (Number in Thousand)
- Figure 19: Poland, Permits for Office Buildings - m2 of Useful Floor Area, 2021=100
- Figure 20: Poland, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020–29
- Figure 21: Poland, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 22: Poland, Manufacturing Value-add (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 23: Poland, Manufacturing Cost Index (The same period of the previous year = 100)
- Figure 24: Poland, Total Merchandise Exports (PLN Million)
- Figure 25: Poland, Manufacturing Production Index (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2021=100)
- Figure 26: Poland, Mining and Quarrying Production Index (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2021=100)
- Figure 27: Poland, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 28: Poland, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 29: Poland, Civil Engineering Production Index (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2021=100)
- Figure 30: Poland, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 31: Poland, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 32: Poland, Information and Communication Value-add (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 33: Poland, Electricity, Gas, Steam, and Air Conditioning Production Index (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2021=100)
- Figure 34: Poland, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 35: Poland, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 36: Poland, Public Administration, Defense, Education, Human Health, and Social Work Value-add (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 37: Poland, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 38: Poland, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 39: Poland, Real Estate Value-add (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 40: Poland, Gross Fixed Capital Formation of Dwellings (PLN Million, 2020 Chained Prices)
- Figure 41: Poland, Dwellings Completed (In Number)
- Figure 42: Poland, Residential Building Permits (in Thousands)
- Figure 43: Poland, Residential Building on Which Construction Started (In Thousands)
- Figure 44: Poland, House Price Index, 2015=100
- Figure 45: Poland, Construction Producer Price Index for New Residential Buildings (2021=100)
- Figure 46: Poland, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)
- Figure 47: Poland, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)
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