Global Power Mix in Transition 2022-2035 - 2025

Global Power Mix in Transition 2022-2035 - 2025

Summary

This outlook provides an analysis of how the global power mix has evolved in recent years and identifies key trends as we move towards 2035, delivering insight on future project costs as well as focus areas for investment in the industry. Overall, the power mix is expected to undergo significant changes in the run-up to 2035. Technological advancements, alongside strong policy initiatives, financial incentives, and increased market demand, will improve the competitiveness of renewable energy compared to conventional thermal power. As a result, renewable energy is forecasted to surpass thermal power in the global power mix by 2033 and will account for a 49% share of the generation mix in 2035.

Overall, the power mix is expected to undergo significant changes in the run-up to 2035. Technological advancements, alongside strong policy initiatives, financial incentives, and increased market demand, will improve the competitiveness of renewable energy compared to conventional thermal power. As a result, renewable energy is forecasted to surpass thermal power in the global power mix by 2033 and will account for a 49% share of the generation mix in 2035.

Solar PV will emerge as the single largest source of renewable generation, accounting for a 20% share of the global power mix in 2035. Despite the strong growth of renewables, thermal power will still account for 43% of the power mix in 2035, driven by sustained coal and gas generation, highlighting the challenge of decarbonizing while there is an ongoing need to reliably cater to burgeoning global energy demands.

Behind global aggregates lie distinctive regional trends. The rate at which regions will shift away from thermal generation will vary, informed by differing socio-economic circumstances, policies and industry. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa will retain a large share of thermal generation in their power mix, while South and Central America will continue to have the cleanest power mix.

Renewable generation faces numerous challenges, including its inherent intermittency and grid integration. Energy storage and hydrogen can help facilitate a faster adoption of renewable energy.

Key Highlights

• Despite improvements in energy efficiency, global power demand is forecasted to continue to rise between 2025 and 2035, increasing at a CAGR of 3.4%. By 2035, the Asia-Pacific region will account for the largest share of power demand, with 62%. This is on account of it being the most populous region and experiencing economic growth and rising per capita energy demand.
• In 2024, renewable energy accounted for 33% of the total global power generation. Conversely, in 2024, thermal power accounted for nearly 60% of global generation. By 2035, renewable energy will account for 49% of the global power mix.
• Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa will retain a large share of thermal generation in their power mix, due to its availability, reliability and affordability. Conversely, South and Central America will continue to have the cleanest power mix, maintaining a share of over 75% between 2025 and 2035, driven by a strong base of hydropower generation.

• Global power generation outlook and trends, breakdown of power generation by region and technology, new investment trends in technology, global average project costs by technology, upcoming thermal capacity and decommissioning, disruptive themes within the energy transition - hydrogen and energy storage

• Identify the trends within the global power mix from 2022 to 2035, including assessing the breakdown of power generation by region and sub-technology
• Identify the macro factors impacting power generation globally
• Assess the impact of the rise of data centers and AI on power demand and the power mix
• Gain insight into key technological trends, including investments in different renewable energy technologies and fossil fuels, alongside average project costs by technology
• Identify the disruptive themes that could impact the power mix landscape over the next decade