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Future of the Swedish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Future of the Swedish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Summary

Sweden is expected to invest US$34.0 billion in its armed forces over the forecast period. The country’s efforts to replace its aging military equipment and modernize its defense forces with advanced technology are expected to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period. As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense expenditure is expected to average 1.1% over 2020-2024. Swedish defense expenditure, which recorded a CAGR of 6.72% during the historic period, is anticipated to stabilize and grow at a CAGR of 4.21% over 2020-2024.

The Swedish government has decided to substantially increase its defense budget for the first time in two decades. Over the forecast period, the country’s defense industry is expected to witness cumulative spending of US$34 billion, with significant expenditure being directed towards the purchase of advanced defense systems, international peacekeeping missions, and research and development initiatives. This can be attributed to the deteriorating security situation in Europe, particularly in the wake of Russian aggression against Ukraine, and Sweden’s efforts to increase the operational war fighting capability of its armed forces.

Owing to security threats from Russia and the deployment of troops in overseas peacekeeping missions, the Swedish government is expected to concentrate on procuring advanced land defense systems, communication systems, and sophisticated air defense equipment. Swedish homeland security expenditure stands at US$5.2 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach US$5.6 billion by 2024, registering a CAGR of 1.84% during 2020-2024.

There will be an increase in the country’s total defense budget, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is predicted to increase marginally from 1.08% during 2015-2019 to 1.11% over 2020-2024. During the historic period, the average allocation for capital expenditure was 36.5% of the total defense budget, which is expected to increase to 36.6% over the forecast period. This is primarily due to the overhaul and modernization of fighter aircraft, and the procurement of helicopters, transport aircraft, frigates, nuclear submarines, C4ISR platforms, and missile defense systems. Additionally, the government is also expected to increase its focus on cyber security and the procurement of drones to enhance aerial surveillance.

The report Future of the Swedish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies and key news.

Companies mentioned: SaaB, BAE Systems AB, Nammo Group, Dynasafe AB, Scanjack AB, Akers Krutbruk Protection AB, Logica, Niscayah

Scope

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

  • The Sweden defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns.
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years.
  • Market opportunities: list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years.
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Swedish defense industry.
Reasons to buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry market trends for the coming five years.
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period.
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector.
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Swedish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, key trends and latest industry contracts.


1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2. Executive Summary
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy
3.1.3. Equipment in Service with the Swedish Armed Forces
3.1.4. Procurement Programs
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
3.2. Defense Market Size, Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Swedish defense expenditure expected to register a CAGR of 4.21% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Modernization initiatives, peacekeeping missions, and perceived threats from Russia are expected to fuel Swedish defense expenditure
3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase marginally over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Sweden’s capital expenditure allocation is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.32% over the forecast period
3.3.3. Per-capita expenditure is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.4. The others segment accounts for the highest share of the defense budget with an average share of 37.3% over the forecast period
3.3.5. Others segment to account for the largest share of the Swedish defense budget
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Swedish police budget is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure will be driven by Sweden’s efforts to counter organized crime
3.4.3. Threat from international terrorist organizations
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Swedish defense expenditure is expected to remain modest over 2020-2024
3.5.2. The country’s defense budget is moderate compared to other leading spenders
3.5.3. Sweden allocates a lower share of GDP to defense compared to countries with significant global defense expenditure
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2019-2024
3.6.2. Land-based C4ISR
3.6.3. Multirole Aircraft MRO
3.6.4. Cyber Security
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense imports registered a decline during 2013-2017
4.1.2. Sweden aims to diversify its arms imports
4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Sweden emerged as the 14th largest global arms exporter during 2013-2017
4.2.2. Swedish defense exports tend to be inclined towards Asian and Middle-Eastern countries
4.2.3. Sweden to foray into non-European defense markets
4.2.4. Aircraft account for the majority of Swedish defense exports
5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: High
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High
6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Swedish offset policy facilitates defense partnerships with different countries
6.1.2. Swedish defense industry is open to foreign direct investment
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Budgeting Process
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process
6.2.3. The acquisition of a domestic defense company is the preferred entry route
6.2.4. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs
6.2.5. Foreign investors enter the market through direct sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Cancellation of projects due to the country’s low defense budget deters investors from entering the market
6.3.2. The absence of multipliers in the offset policy discourages foreign suppliers
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Swedish Market Share Analysis, 2018
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
7.2.1. SAAB - Overview
7.2.2. SAAB - Products and Services
7.2.3. SAAB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.2.4. SAAB - Alliances
7.2.5. SAAB - Recent Contract Wins
7.2.6. SAAB - Financial Analysis
7.3. Key Private Sector Companies
7.3.1. BAE Systems AB - Overview
7.3.2. BAE Systems AB - Products
7.3.3. BAE Systems AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.4. BAE Systems AB - Alliances
7.3.5. BAE Systems AB - Recent Contract Wins
7.3.6. Nammo AS - Overview
7.3.7. Nammo AS - Products and Services
7.3.8. Nammo AS - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.9. Nammo AS - Alliances
7.3.10. Dynasafe AB - Overview
7.3.11. Dynasafe AB - Products
7.3.12. Dynasafe AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.13. Dynasafe AB - Recent Contract Wins
7.3.14. Scanjack AB - Overview
7.3.15. Scanjack AB - Products
7.3.16. Scanjack AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.17. Scanjack AB - Recent Contract Wins
7.3.18. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Overview
7.3.19. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Products and Services
7.3.20. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.21. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Alliances
7.3.22. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB - Recent Contract Wins
7.3.23. Logica - Overview
7.3.24. Logica - Products
7.3.25. Logica - Alliances
7.3.26. Logica - Recent Contract Wins
7.3.27. Niscayah - Overview
7.3.28. Niscayah - Products
7.3.29. Niscayah - Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.30. Niscayah - Alliances
7.3.31. Niscayah - Recent Contract Wins
8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. GDP Per Capita
8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion)
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (LCU Billion)
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion)
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$ (Period Average)
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP) (LCU)
8.1.10. Goods Exports (% of GDP)
8.1.11. Goods Imports (% of GDP)
8.1.12. Services Imports (% of GDP)
8.1.13. Services Exports (% of GDP)
8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP)
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)
9. Appendix
9.1. About GlobalData
9.2. Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Key Swedish Land Forces Procurement and Modernization Programs
Table 2: Key Swedish Naval Forces Procurement and Modernization Programs
Table 3: Key Swedish Air Force Procurement and Modernization Programs
Table 4: Swedish Army
Table 5: Swedish Air Force
Table 6: Swedish Navy
Table 7: Swedish Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs, 2018
Table 8: Swedish - Future Procurement Programs, 2018
Table 9: Swedish - Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 10: Swedish Defense Cooperation
Table 11: Swedish Defense and Security Expenditure (SEK Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 12: Swedish GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015 -2024
Table 13: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Table 14: Swedish Defense Capital Expenditure (SEK Million and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 15: Swedish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Table 16: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015-2024
Table 17: Swedish Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (SEK Billion), 2015-2024
Table 18: Swedish - Defense Budget Breakdown by Service ( US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 19: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
Table 21: Top Sweden Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 22: Top Country Ranking by Arms Exports, 2013-2017
Table 23: Swedish Defense Offset Program
Table 24: Swedish Budget Formation Timetable
Table 25: Competitive Landscape of the Swedish Defense Industry
Table 26: Top Defense Suppliers in the Swedish Defense Industry by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 27: SAAB - Products and Services
Table 28: SAAB - Alliances
Table 29: SAAB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 30: BAE Systems AB - Products
Table 31: BAE Systems AB - Alliances
Table 32: BAE Systems AB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 33: Nammo AS - Products and Services
Table 34: Nammo AS - Alliances
Table 35: Dynasafe AB - Products
Table 36: Dynasafe AB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 37: Scanjack AB - Products
Table 38: Scanjack AB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 39: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB - Products and Services
Table 40: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB - Alliances
Table 41: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 42: Logica - Products
Table 43: Logica - Alliances
Table 44: Logica - Recent Contract Wins
Table 45: Niscayah - Products
Table 46: Niscayah - Alliances
Table 47: Niscayah - Recent Contract Wins
List of Figures
Figure 1: Swedish Defense Budget, 2020 and 2024
Figure 2: Swedish Defense Imports/Exports, 2013 and 2017
Figure 3: Sweden’s Top Five Prospective Procurements/Developments
Figure 4: Swedish National Security Threats
Figure 5: Sweden’s Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
Figure 6: Swedish Defense Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 7: Swedish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 8: Swedish GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
Figure 9: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Figure 10: Swedish Defense Capital Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 11: Swedish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 12: Swedish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Figure 13: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015-2024
Figure 14: Swedish Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (SEK Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 15: Swedish Defense Budget Breakdown by Service (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 16: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 17: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
Figure 19: Benchmarking with the World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
Figure 20: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as a Percentage of GDP, 2019
Figure 21: Land-Based C4ISR (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 22: Multirole Aircraft MRO (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 23: Cyber Security (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 24: Top Swedish Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships
Figure 25: Swedish Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values)
Figure 26: Swedish Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 (TIV Values)
Figure 27: Swedish Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 28: Swedish Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values)
Figure 29: Swedish Defense Export Trend by Country (%), 2013-2017 (TIV Values)
Figure 30: Swedish Defense Export Trend by Weapon Category (%), 2013-2017 (TIV Values)
Figure 31: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 32: Swedish FMV Organization Chart
Figure 33: Key Challenges in the Ukrainian Defense Market
Figure 34: Sweden Market Share Analysis, 2018
Figure 35: SAAB - Revenue Trend Analysis (SEK Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 36: SAAB - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (SEK Million), 2013-2017
Figure 37: SAAB - Net Profit Trend Analysis (SEK Million), 2013-2017
Figure 38: Swedish GDP Per Capita (US$/%), 2015-2025
Figure 39: Swedish GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion/%), 2015-2025
Figure 40: Swedish Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (LCU Billion/%), 2005-2014
Figure 41: Swedish Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion/%), 2005-2014
Figure 42: Swedish Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion/%), 2005-2014
Figure 43: Local Currency Unit per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 44: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Sweden (US$ Billion/%), 2005-2012
Figure 45: Swedish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 46: Swedish Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP) (LCU), 2005-2012
Figure 47: Swedish Goods Exports (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 48: Swedish Goods Imports (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 49: Swedish Services Imports (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 50: Swedish Services Exports (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 51: Swedish Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 52: Swedish Net Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 53: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

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