Croatian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Croatian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Summary

Croatia’s defense budget is expected to increase at a CAGR of 9.15%, primarily to counter terrorist threats and enhance defense capabilities. Croatia joined NATO in April 2009, becoming the second previously Yugoslav country to do so after Slovenia, which joined in 2004. Relations between the NATO countries and Russia have reached their lowest point since the end of the Cold War and the US is exerting pressure on its European allies to increase their defense budgets, an area where Croatia has been lagging behind.

All NATO partners had agreed to comply to contribute at least 2% of their GDP towards defense expenditure in 2014 with Croatia, who joined the NATO in 2009, allocating 1.5% of its GDP on defense in the 2019 budget. The country has emerged as an important contributor to regional stability and international security since joining NATO.

The country’s participation in peacekeeping operations and counter terrorism also fueled Croatia’s defense expenditure during the historic period. With this trend expected to continue over the forecast period, Croatia’s defense expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 9.15% to value US$1.22 billion in 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense expenditure is expected to average 1.7% over the forecast period, compared to the 1.3% recorded during the historic period.

Croatia’s homeland security (HLS) expenditure, which recorded a CAGR of 7.07% during the historic period, increased from US$682 million in 2015 to US$896 million in 2019. The HLS budget will be invested into the procurement of surveillance and intelligence technologies, such as electronic identification documents, automated border crossing systems and CCTV (closed circuit television) systems. Croatian HLS expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.41% over the forecast period, increasing from US$920 million in 2020 to US$1.05 billion by 2024.

During 2014-2018, the US emerged as the largest supplier of military hardware to Croatia, accounting for 63% of the country’s defense imports, followed by Germany and Ukraine with respective shares of 30% and 7%. The US mainly supplied Croatia with aircraft, armored vehicles, artillery and missiles, a trend anticipated to continue over the forecast period due to the country’s dependence on the US to meet its key defense requirements.

The report Croatian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024, offers detailed analysis of the Croatian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

  • The Croatian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Croatian defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Croatian defense industry
Companies mentioned: Elbit Systems, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Bell Helicopter

Scope
  • Croatia joined NATO in April 2009, becoming the second previously Yugoslav country to do so after Slovenia, which joined in 2004. Relations between the NATO countries and Russia have reached their lowest point since the end of the Cold War and the US is exerting pressure on its European allies to increase their defense budgets, an area where Croatia has been lagging behind. All NATO partners had agreed to comply to contribute at least 2% of their GDP towards defense expenditure in 2014 with Croatia, who joined the NATO in 2009, allocating 1.5% of its GDP on defense in the 2019 budget.
  • The country has emerged as an important contributor to regional stability and international security since joining NATO. It is a relatively peaceful country compared to other Central European nations, which encounter frequent turbulence. Croatia is also an active participant in the NATO Partnership for Peace Program. Since 2003, over 6,700 Croatian soldiers have participated in NATO-led operations, missions and activities. In honor of the 10th anniversary of Croatia's accession to NATO, international military exercises will be held in the country in May and June 2019, where 750 Croatian military personnel, 450 representatives of NATO countries and partner countries, 60 aircraft, 30 helicopters, and 800 ground vehicles will take part. This first part of a threefold military exercise, dubbed Immediate Response 19, was launched on 10 May 2019, and will be followed by the Astral Knight 19 and Swift Response 19. The country is also working aggressively to strengthen its diplomatic ties and defense cooperation with other countries to enhance its military capabilities. Croatia recently signed defense cooperation agreements with countries like the Philippines and Albania which is expected to provide fresh impetus to defense cooperation between the countries.
  • The growth in the Croatian defense market is primarily driven by the need to modernize the country’s defense arsenal and counter Russian military aggression in Ukraine, which brought about the possibility of an armed conflict in the European region. The country’s participation in peacekeeping operations and counter terrorism also fueled Croatia’s defense expenditure during the historic period.
Reasons to buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Croatian defense industry market trends for the coming five years.
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period.
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector.
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Estonian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, key trends and latest industry contracts.


  • Introduction
    • What is this Report About?
    • Definitions
    • Summary Methodology
    • About GlobalData
  • Executive Summary
    • Table Figure 1 : Croatian Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
    • Table Figure 2 : Croatian Defense Imports/Exports: 2014 and 2018
  • Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
    • Table Figure 3 : Croatia's Top Three Prospective Procurements/Developments
    • Current Market Scenario
      • Procurement Programs
        • Table Croatia - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (US$ Million)
        • Table Estonia - Future Procurement Programs
      • Key Drivers and Challenges
    • Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
      • Croatia's annual defense expenditure to reach US$1.22 billion by 2024
        • Table Croatia Defense Expenditure (KUNA Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 4: Croatia Defense Expenditure (KUNA Billion), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 5: Croatia Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2015-2024
      • Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Croatia's defense expenditure
      • The country's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.72% over the forecast period
        • Table Croatia GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth (%), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 6: Croatia GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013- 2024
    • Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
      • Capital expenditure's share of total expenditure to increase considerably over the forecast period
        • Table Croatia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015- 2024
        • Table Figure 7: Croatia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
      • Capital expenditure budget is expected to increase over the forecast period
        • Table Croatia Defense Capital Expenditure (KUNA Million & US$ Million), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 8: Croatia Capital Budget Expenditure (KUNA Billion), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 9: Croatia Capital Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2015-2024
      • Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
        • Table Croatia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 10: Croatia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
    • Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
      • Croatia's homeland security budget is projected to increase at a CAGR of 3.41% over the forecast period
        • Table Croatia Homeland Security Expenditure (KUNA Million and US$ Million), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 11: Croatia Homeland Security Budget (KUNA Billion), 2015-2024
        • Table Figure 12: Croatia Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
      • Organized crime forms the major component of homeland security expenditure
    • Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
      • Croatia's defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 9.15% over the forecast period
        • Table Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
        • Table Figure 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
      • Croatia's military expenditure is low compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
        • Table Figure 14: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Million), 2019 and 2024
      • Croatia allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense
        • Table Figure 15: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019
    • Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
      • Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2019- 2024
        • Table Top 10 Croatian Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
    • Import Market Dynamics
      • The country's current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports
        • Table Figure 16: Croatia Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2014-2018 (TIV Values)
      • The US was the leading supplier of arms to Croatia during the historic period; a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period
        • Table Figure 17: Croatia Defense Imports by Country (%), 2014-2018
      • Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2015
        • Table Figure 18: Croatia Defense Imports by Category (%), 2014-2018
    • Export Market Dynamics
      • Croatia does not export a large volume of arms due to its under-developed domestic industry
        • Table Figure 19: Croatia Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2014-2018 (TIV Values)
  • Industry Dynamics
    • Market Regulation
      • Croatia has not disclosed any offset obligations
      • Regulations regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) in the defense sector have not been disclosed by the government
    • Market Entry Route
      • Budgeting process
        • Table Croatia Budget Formation Timetable
      • Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
  • Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
    • Competitive Landscape Overview
      • Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver them to Croatia
        • Table Competitive Landscape of the Croatia Defense Industry
      • Croatia Market Share Analysis, 2018
        • Table Figure 20: Croatia Market Share Analysis, 2018
  • Business Environment and Country Risk
    • Economic Performance
      • GDP Per Capita
        • Table Figure 21: Croatia GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
      • GDP, Current Prices
        • Table Figure 22: Croatia GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
      • Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Million)
        • Table Figure 23: Croatia Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
      • Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
        • Table Figure 24: Croatia Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
      • Local Currency Unit per US$
        • Table Figure 25: Local Currency per US$, 2015-2024
      • Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
        • Table Figure 26: Croatia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
      • Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
        • Table Figure 27: Croatia Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
      • Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 28: Croatia Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
      • Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 29: Croatia Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
      • Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 30: Croatia Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
      • Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 31: Croatia Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
      • Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
        • Table Figure 32: Croatia Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
      • Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 33: Croatia Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
      • Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
        • Table Figure 34: Croatia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2005-2014
  • Appendix
    • Disclaimer

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