Critical Raw Materials Shaping the Energy Transition - 2025

Critical Raw Materials Shaping the Energy Transition - 2025

Summary

Critical minerals continue to present a core policy issue as mounting geopolitical tensions globally shine a spotlight on vulnerabilities across critical mineral supply chains. This report discusses the relationships between the critical minerals of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, graphite and rare earths and the global energy transition. The report also presents the key trends across renewable energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles, which will powerfully shape future demand for critical minerals.

The focus minerals of this report carry medium to high levels of risk due to a combination of factors. Factors that have been assessed include the expected increase in energy transition demand relative to current supplies, the characteristics of current mining and refining supply chains, the ease of scaling supply through new mine projects, and the current slate of trade restrictions impacting the minerals and their underlying technologies. The combination of these different factors will determine whether they pose a limiting factor to scaling energy transition technologies.

Overall, the global mined production capacity of battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel has scaled rapidly in recent years, driven by concerns of shortage in the early phase of electric vehicle adoption and mounting stationary energy storage project activity. As a result, all three minerals hold supplies that are on track to meet their end-of-decade projected demand. However, geographically concentrated supply chains and the potential for export restrictions result in all three still carrying medium to high levels of risk despite their recent ramp in production.

This analysis identifies graphite and rare earths as the highest source of risk in terms of the critical minerals that will be instrumental to the global energy transition. Graphite is a key material for lithium-ion battery anodes and is currently facing a large end of decade supply deficit. Lastly, rare earths present the highest risk due to midstream supply chain dependence, the imposition of heavy trade restrictions, and potential for intersector competition and stockpiling pose limiting factors to scaling energy transition technologies such as wind turbines, electric vehicles and solar PV.

Key Highlights

• The nature of the global power system is changing significantly, with combined renewable generation currently forecast to overtake thermal power by 2033. As a result, an increasing proportion of the power mix will be reliant on distributed and variable renewable generation, which will pose new material requirements across both generation, energy storage, and grid infrastructure.
• Lithium as a critical mineral has been subject to significant volatility, as well as narrative shift, with concerns of shortages and stockpiling leading to peak lithium carbonate prices in 2022. However, in recent years, global lithium production has grown rapidly, with GlobalData estimating an annual increase of 34% between 2020 and 2024.
• The International Copper Association also estimates that power systems supported by a high proportion of renewables use between 6-12 times more copper than fossil-based power systems. Therefore, the growth of clean energy copper demand is expected to remain in lock-step with rapid renewable energy deployment.
• Despite their name, rare earths are relatively common within the earth’s crust. However, their extraction and processing is both energy intensive and carries challenges such as toxic by-products. As a result, their supply chains are heavily concentrated across a small number of countries, particularly at the refining and magnet production stage, where China dominates.

Scope

• Risk assessment of key critical minerals for the energy transition, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and rare earths. Commodity production and consumption outlooks, leading countries, and energy transition market drivers

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the factors driving risk for the supplies of critical materials necessary for the energy transition.
• Gain an understanding of the critical material demands of energy transition technologies.
• Stay informed about key mining projects that will influence the supplies of critical raw materials
• Gain insight into the geographical characteristics of the critical raw material market
• Understand the key players producing lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum and graphite.

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