Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis - Update (2025)
Summary
This report covers the 7 major markets and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) market through 2033.
COPD is a progressive lung disease characterized by an abnormal inflammatory response and airflow obstruction that is not fully reversible. According to GOLD 2023, COPD has been defined as a heterogenous lung condition that is characterized by chronic symptoms (dyspnea, cough, sputum production, and/or exacerbations due to abnormalities of the airways [bronchitis, bronchiolitis] and/or alveoli [emphysema]) that cause persistent, often progressive, airflow obstruction.
Drug sales in the COPD drug market are expected to grow at a steady rate between 2023 and 2033, with an overall compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.0% over the forecast period. In 2023, GlobalData estimated the total COPD market to be valued at $11.6 billion across the 7MM. Over the forecast period, the COPD market is anticipated to grow to a value of $30.2 billion in 2033.
This model covers the market forecast for marketed and pipeline drugs for COPD. The base year of this model is 2023, with a forecast period between 2023-2033.
Key Highlights
- Report deliverables include a PDF report and Excel-based forecast model
- Forecasts includes the 7MM
- Forecasts covers from 2023-2033
- Overview of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), including a detailed summary of changes, epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, disease management, and Asthma-COPD Overlap (ACO).
- Annualized COPD therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns forecast from 2023 to 2033.
- Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications of these factors for the COPD therapeutics market.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for COPD treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global COPD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 7MM COPD therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the 7MM COPD therapeutics market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
- 1 Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Executive Summary
- 1.1 Summary of Changes
- 1.2 Executive Summary
- 1.3 The COPD market will show steady growth during the forecast period, reaching sales of $30.2 billion in 2033
- 1.4 GSK, AstraZeneca, and Sanofi/Regeneron competing for first place in 2033
- 1.5 COPD remains a market with high unmet need
- 1.6 Lack of established biomarkers for COPD
- 1.7 Late-stage COPD pipeline therapies to target a niche population
- 1.8 What do physicians think?
- 2 Introduction
- 2.1 Catalyst
- 2.2 Summary of Changes
- 2.3 Related reports
- 2.4 Upcoming related reports
- 3 Disease Overview
- 3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
- 3.1.1 Etiology
- 3.1.2 Pathophysiology
- 3.2 2016 GOLD classification or staging systems
- 3.3 New 2023 GOLD classification system
- 3.3.1 US key opinion leader insights
- 3.3.2 EU key opinion leader insights
- 3.3.3 Japan key opinion leader insights
- 3.4 Symptoms
- 3.5 Asthma-COPD overlap
- 3.5.1 Definition of asthma-COPD overlap
- 3.5.2 Etiology and pathophysiology
- 3.5.3 Key opinion leader insights on asthma-COPD overlap
- 4 Epidemiology
- 4.1 Disease background
- 4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
- 4.3 Global and historical trends
- 4.4 Forecast methodology
- 4.4.1 Sources
- 4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
- 4.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: total prevalent cases of COPD - 7MM
- 4.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD
- 4.4.5 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity - GOLD 2016 criteria using mMRC score
- 4.4.6 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity - GOLD 2016 criteria using CAT score
- 4.4.7 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity - GOLD 2023 criteria using mMRC/CAT scores
- 4.5 Epidemiological forecast for COPD
- 4.5.1 Total prevalent cases of COPD
- 4.5.2 Diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD
- 4.5.3 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD
- 4.5.4 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD
- 4.5.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2016 criteria using mMRC score
- 4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2016 criteria using CAT score
- 4.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2023 criteria using mMRC score
- 4.5.8 Diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2023 criteria using CAT score
- 4.6 Discussion
- 4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
- 4.6.2 COVID-19 impact
- 4.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
- 4.6.4 Strengths of the analysis
- 5 Disease Management
- 5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
- 5.2 US
- 5.3 EU
- 5.4 Japan
- 6 Current Treatment Options
- 6.1 Overview
- 7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
- 7.1 Overview
- 7.2 Disease-modifying treatments to reverse the progression of COPD
- 7.3 Lack of access and training of spirometry
- 7.4 Biomarkers for COPD
- 7.5 Improved clinical trial design
- 7.6 Earlier diagnosis and recognition
- 8 R&D Strategies
- 8.1 Overview
- 8.1.1 Focus on type 2 inflammation with biologics
- 8.1.2 Focus on treatment of exacerbators
- 8.1.3 Targeted Biologic Therapies for Inflammatory Endotypes
- 8.2 Clinical trials design
- 8.2.1 Defining the primary endpoints
- 8.2.2 Innovative trial design
- 8.2.3 Phenotyping in COPD trials
- 9 Pipeline Assessment
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development
- 10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
- 10.1 Overview
- 10.2 Competitive assessment
- 11 Current and Future Players
- 11.1 Overview
- 11.2 Deal-making trends
- 12 Market Outlook
- 12.1 Global markets
- 12.1.1 Forecast
- 12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
- 12.2 US
- 12.2.1 Forecast
- 12.2.2 Key events
- 12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
- 12.3 5EU
- 12.3.1 Forecast
- 12.3.2 Key events
- 12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
- 12.4 Japan
- 12.4.1 Forecast
- 12.4.2 Key events
- 12.4.3 Drivers and barriers
- 13 Appendix
- 13.1 Bibliography
- 13.2 Abbreviations
- 13.3 Methodology
- 13.3.1 Forecasting methodology
- 13.4 Primary research - key opinion leaders interviewed for this report
- 13.4.1 Key opinion leaders
- 13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
- 13.6 About the authors
- 13.6.1 Analyst
- 13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
- 13.6.3 Epidemiologist
- 13.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
- 13.6.5 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology
- 13.6.6 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence
- 14 About GlobalData
- 15 Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1 Summary of Changes of COPD: Seven- Market Drug Forecast and Analysis Report
- Table 2: COPD - Key metrics in the 7MM
- Table 3: GOLD criteria for the classification of COPD, 2018
- Table 4: Symptoms of COPD
- Table 5: Modified mMRC Dyspnea Scale
- Table 6: Risk factors and comorbidities for COPD
- Table 7 Treatment guidelines for COPD
- Table 8 Country profile - US, 2023
- Table 9 Region profile - 5EU, 2023
- Table 10 Country profile - Japan, 2023
- Table 11: Top deals by value, 2019-24
- Table 12: COPD market - global drivers and barriers, 2023-2033
- Table 13: Key events impacting sales for COPD in the US, 2023-2033
- Table 14: COPD market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2023-2033
- Table 15: Key events impacting sales for COPD in the 5EU, 2023-2033
- Table 16: COPD market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2023-2033
- Table 17: Key events impacting sales for COPD in Japan, 2023-2033
- Table 18: COPD market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2023-2033
- Table 19: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for COPD in 2023 and 2033
- Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in COPD during the forecast period
- Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for the treatment of COPD during the forecast period
- Figure 4: Normal lungs and lungs with COPD
- Figure 5: The pathogenesis of COPD
- Figure 6: 2023 GOLD classification and segmentation of COPD patients
- Figure 7: 7MM, total prevalence of COPD (%), men and women, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 8: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of COPD (%), men and women, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 9: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the total prevalent cases of COPD
- Figure 10: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD
- Figure 11: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity - GOLD 2016 criteria using mMRC score
- Figure 12: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity - GOLD 2016 criteria using CAT score
- Figure 13: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity - GOLD 2023 criteria using mMRC or CAT scores
- Figure 14: 7MM, total prevalent cases of COPD, N, both sexes, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 15: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD, N, both sexes, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 16: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by age, N, both sexes, 2023
- Figure 17: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by sex, N, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2016 criteria using mMRC score, N, both sexes, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2016 criteria using CAT score, N, both sexes, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2023 criteria using mMRC score, N, both sexes, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 21: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by GOLD 2023 criteria using CAT score, N, both sexes, ages ≥35 years, 2023
- Figure 22: COPD initial treatment algorithm according to 2023 GOLD guidelines
- Figure 23: Pharmacological treatment of COPD patients in the follow-up algorithm
- Figure 24: Unmet needs and opportunities in COPD
- Figure 25: Overview of the development pipeline in COPD
- Figure 26: Key Phase II/III trials for promising pipeline agents
- Figure 27: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline small molecules benchmarked against Roflumilast
- Figure 28: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline biologics benchmarked against Dupixent
- Figure 29: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in COPD during the forecast period
- Figure 30: Global (7MM) sales forecast by country for COPD in 2023 and 2033
- Figure 31: Sales forecast by class for COPD in the US, 2023 and 2033
- Figure 32: Sales forecast by class for COPD in the 5EU, 2023 and 2033
- Figure 33: Sales forecast by class for COPD in Japan, 2023 and 2033
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