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Donald Trump’s Policy Direction and Analysis of Its Impact on US Manufacturing

Donald Trump’s Policy Direction and Analysis of Its Impact on US Manufacturing

This study explores President Trump’s economic, manufacturing, trade, corporate tax, and environmental policy direction, while evaluating attached benefits and risks for US manufacturing. The study delves into the United States’ overall manufacturing growth outlook while also examining industry-specific outlooks.

Key questions this study will answer:
• What is the growth outlook for US manufacturing in the Trump policy era?
• How will the United States’ withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) affect its trade relations with TPP members and the rest of the world?
• How will renegotiation of or withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) affect US manufacturing exports to and imports from Canada and Mexico?
• How will a proposed 35% import tariff on US firms that lay off domestic workers and construct plants overseas reshape US manufacturing?
• How will a proposed 45% tariff on Chinese imports influence US manufacturing?
• What is the effect of a reduced corporate tax rate on the manufacturing sector?
• How would the likely US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on reduced greenhouse gas emissions affect the competitiveness of US manufacturing exports?


  • Executive Summary
    • US Policy Planning
    • Donald Trump's Policy Direction and Impact on US Manufacturing
    • Uncertainty and Impact Assessment Matrix
    • US MVA Forecast-Scenario Analysis
      • Table MVA CAGR and MVA Value Under Each Scenario, US, 2017-2020
  • Present State of US Manufacturing
    • Manufacturing Share in GDP and Export Dominance
    • Manufacturing Employment and Establishments
    • Present State of US Manufacturing-Key Takeaways
  • Impact Analysis of Donald Trump's Trade Policy Direction
    • TPP Withdrawal-An Introduction
    • TPP Withdrawal-Potential Benefits
    • TPP Withdrawal-Potential Risks
    • TPP Withdrawal and Impact on US Manufacturing-Key Insights
    • NAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal-An Introduction
      • Table Manufacturing Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance, US with Mexico and Canada, 2002 and 2015
    • NAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal-Potential Benefits
    • NAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal-Potential Risks
    • NAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal and Impact on US Manufacturing-Key Insights
    • 35% Import Tariff on Firms-An Introduction
    • 35% Import Tariff on Firms and Impact on US Manufacturing-Key Insights
    • 45% Tariff on Chinese Imports-An Introduction
    • 45% Import Tariff on Chinese Imports and Impact on US Manufacturing-Key Insights
  • Impact Analysis of Donald Trump's Corporate Tax Rate Policy Direction
    • Lowering of Corporate Tax Rate to 15%-An Introduction
    • Lowering of Corporate Tax Rate to 15% and Impact on US Manufacturing-Key Insights
  • Manufacturing Project Announcements
    • Recent US Manufacturing Project Announcements
      • Table Recent Major Manufacturing Project Announcements, US, 2016-2017
  • Impact Analysis of Donald Trump's Environment Policy Direction
    • Environment Policy Direction-An Introduction
    • Environment Policy Direction and Impact on US Manufacturing-Key Insights
  • Industry Outlook
    • Industry Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues, 2017
    • Industry Vertical Outlook, 2017-2020
  • Donald Trump's Policy Direction and Manufacturing Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • MVA Forecast
      • Table MVA CAGR and Value Under Each Scenario, US, 2017-2020
    • Scenario Analysis

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