HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) - Epidemiology Forecast - 2034
Description
Key Highlights
The total incident cases of HNSCC in the 7MM were approximately 151,000 in 2024, which are expected to increase in the upcoming years.
HPV16 is a major cause of HNSCC, a severe, life-threatening condition typically diagnosed in middle-aged adults. Advanced-stage cancers often have a very short median survival.
In the 7MM, the highest number of HPV16-positive non-OPSCC cases occurred at the localized stage (Stages I and II), closely followed by regional stage cases (Stages III to IVB).
Several European countries, including Spain, Italy, and the UK, have historically shown a lower burden of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). However, in recent years, there has been a notable rise in both OPC incidence and the prevalence of HPV-driven OPC, suggesting a shifting disease landscape and highlighting the growing impact of HPV in regions previously considered low-burden.
Several ctDNA and biomarkers, including p16, E6/E7 oncoproteins, and noncoding RNAs (microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs), aid in diagnosing, prognosticating, and managing HPV-related cancers. Techniques like ddPCR, NGS, and CRISPR-based diagnostics show high sensitivity and specificity.
Stronger tobacco/alcohol impact, geographic HPV strain differences, and delayed HPV testing practices have contributed to Europe and Japan lower prevalence of HPV-positive OPSCC.
DelveInsight’s “HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC)” report delivers an in-depth understanding of HPV16+ HNSCC, historical and forecasted epidemiology in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Geography Covered
The United States
EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
Japan
Study Period: 2020–2034
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Understanding
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Overview
HPV, particularly HPV-16, is an increasingly important risk factor for HNSCC, especially oropharyngeal cancers, now accounting for over 70% of such cases. While tobacco and alcohol remain traditional causes, the rise in HPV-driven HNSCC marks a major epidemiological shift. HNSCC is the sixth most common cancer globally and includes malignancies of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, and related sites. HPV-positive tumors, driven by E6 and E7 oncoproteins that inactivate p53 and Rb, differ molecularly from HPV-negative ones and tend to show better differentiation, earlier presentation, improved treatment response, and superior prognosis. p16 immunohistochemistry is commonly used to identify HPV-related tumors. The increasing incidence of HPV-positive cases, particularly in non-smokers, highlights the importance of HPV vaccination for cancer prevention. This molecular distinction between HPV-positive and negative HNSCC has critical implications for treatment planning, prognosis, and future development of targeted therapies.
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Diagnosis
HNSCC, one of the most common cancers globally, develops from the mucosal lining of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx, with significant risk factors including tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and HPV type 16 infection. HPV-positive subtypes, especially in the oropharynx, are associated with better prognosis and greater responsiveness to treatment compared to the more aggressive HPV-negative variants linked to traditional risk factors. The molecular mechanisms of HPV, particularly through the viral proteins E6 and E7, drive malignant transformation by disrupting tumor suppressor pathways. This underscores the growing need for public health measures like HPV vaccination and advancements in targeted therapies to improve survival rates and reduce the increasing prevalence of these cancers.
Further details related to diagnosis will be provided in the report…
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Epidemiology
The HPV16+ HNSCC epidemiology chapter in the report provides historical as well as forecasted epidemiology segmented by the total incident cases of HNSCC, site-specific cases of HNSCC, total incident cases of HPV+ HNSCC, total incident cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC, stage-specific cases of HPV16+ OPSCC, stage-specific cases of HPV16+ Non-OPSCC in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan from 2020 to 2034.
The total incident cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in the US were approximately 24,000 in 2024, which is expected to increase in the upcoming years.
Among the total site-specific cases of HNSCC in the US, the oropharynx was observed to have the highest cases of HNSCC, i.e. nearly 20,000, and the salivary gland was observed to have the lowest number of cases of HNSCC, i.e., nearly 1,100 in 2024.
Among the total stage-specific cases of OPSCC in EU4 and the UK, Germany accounted for nearly 1,800 cases of regional (stages III-IVB) and nearly 120 unknown cases in 2024.
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Report Insights
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Report Insights
Patient Population
Country-wise Epidemiology Distribution
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Report Key Strengths
Ten Years Forecast
7MM Coverage
HPV16-Positive HNSCC Epidemiology Segmentation
FAQs
What are the disease risks, burdens, and unmet needs of HPV16-Positive HNSCC? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population with HPV16-Positive HNSCC?
What is the historical and forecasted HPV16-Positive HNSCC patient pool in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) the UK, and Japan?
Reasons to Buy
Insights on patient burden/disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
To understand Key Opinion Leaders’ perspectives around the accessibility, acceptability, and compliance-related challenges of existing diagnosis to overcome barriers in the future.
Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.
The total incident cases of HNSCC in the 7MM were approximately 151,000 in 2024, which are expected to increase in the upcoming years.
HPV16 is a major cause of HNSCC, a severe, life-threatening condition typically diagnosed in middle-aged adults. Advanced-stage cancers often have a very short median survival.
In the 7MM, the highest number of HPV16-positive non-OPSCC cases occurred at the localized stage (Stages I and II), closely followed by regional stage cases (Stages III to IVB).
Several European countries, including Spain, Italy, and the UK, have historically shown a lower burden of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). However, in recent years, there has been a notable rise in both OPC incidence and the prevalence of HPV-driven OPC, suggesting a shifting disease landscape and highlighting the growing impact of HPV in regions previously considered low-burden.
Several ctDNA and biomarkers, including p16, E6/E7 oncoproteins, and noncoding RNAs (microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs), aid in diagnosing, prognosticating, and managing HPV-related cancers. Techniques like ddPCR, NGS, and CRISPR-based diagnostics show high sensitivity and specificity.
Stronger tobacco/alcohol impact, geographic HPV strain differences, and delayed HPV testing practices have contributed to Europe and Japan lower prevalence of HPV-positive OPSCC.
DelveInsight’s “HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC)” report delivers an in-depth understanding of HPV16+ HNSCC, historical and forecasted epidemiology in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Geography Covered
The United States
EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom
Japan
Study Period: 2020–2034
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Understanding
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Overview
HPV, particularly HPV-16, is an increasingly important risk factor for HNSCC, especially oropharyngeal cancers, now accounting for over 70% of such cases. While tobacco and alcohol remain traditional causes, the rise in HPV-driven HNSCC marks a major epidemiological shift. HNSCC is the sixth most common cancer globally and includes malignancies of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, and related sites. HPV-positive tumors, driven by E6 and E7 oncoproteins that inactivate p53 and Rb, differ molecularly from HPV-negative ones and tend to show better differentiation, earlier presentation, improved treatment response, and superior prognosis. p16 immunohistochemistry is commonly used to identify HPV-related tumors. The increasing incidence of HPV-positive cases, particularly in non-smokers, highlights the importance of HPV vaccination for cancer prevention. This molecular distinction between HPV-positive and negative HNSCC has critical implications for treatment planning, prognosis, and future development of targeted therapies.
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Diagnosis
HNSCC, one of the most common cancers globally, develops from the mucosal lining of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx, with significant risk factors including tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and HPV type 16 infection. HPV-positive subtypes, especially in the oropharynx, are associated with better prognosis and greater responsiveness to treatment compared to the more aggressive HPV-negative variants linked to traditional risk factors. The molecular mechanisms of HPV, particularly through the viral proteins E6 and E7, drive malignant transformation by disrupting tumor suppressor pathways. This underscores the growing need for public health measures like HPV vaccination and advancements in targeted therapies to improve survival rates and reduce the increasing prevalence of these cancers.
Further details related to diagnosis will be provided in the report…
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Epidemiology
The HPV16+ HNSCC epidemiology chapter in the report provides historical as well as forecasted epidemiology segmented by the total incident cases of HNSCC, site-specific cases of HNSCC, total incident cases of HPV+ HNSCC, total incident cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC, stage-specific cases of HPV16+ OPSCC, stage-specific cases of HPV16+ Non-OPSCC in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan from 2020 to 2034.
The total incident cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in the US were approximately 24,000 in 2024, which is expected to increase in the upcoming years.
Among the total site-specific cases of HNSCC in the US, the oropharynx was observed to have the highest cases of HNSCC, i.e. nearly 20,000, and the salivary gland was observed to have the lowest number of cases of HNSCC, i.e., nearly 1,100 in 2024.
Among the total stage-specific cases of OPSCC in EU4 and the UK, Germany accounted for nearly 1,800 cases of regional (stages III-IVB) and nearly 120 unknown cases in 2024.
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Report Insights
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Report Insights
Patient Population
Country-wise Epidemiology Distribution
HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Report Key Strengths
Ten Years Forecast
7MM Coverage
HPV16-Positive HNSCC Epidemiology Segmentation
FAQs
What are the disease risks, burdens, and unmet needs of HPV16-Positive HNSCC? What will be the growth opportunities across the 7MM concerning the patient population with HPV16-Positive HNSCC?
What is the historical and forecasted HPV16-Positive HNSCC patient pool in the US, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) the UK, and Japan?
Reasons to Buy
Insights on patient burden/disease prevalence, evolution in diagnosis, and factors contributing to the change in the epidemiology of the disease during the forecast years.
To understand Key Opinion Leaders’ perspectives around the accessibility, acceptability, and compliance-related challenges of existing diagnosis to overcome barriers in the future.
Detailed insights on various factors hampering disease diagnosis and other existing diagnostic challenges.
Table of Contents
127 Pages
- 1. Key Insights
- 2. Report Introduction
- 3. Executive Summary of HPV16-Positive HNSCC
- 4. Epidemiology Forecast Methodology
- 5. HPV16-Positive Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) Overview at a Glance
- 5.1. Patient Share (%) Distribution of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in 2024
- 5.2. Patient Share (%) Distribution of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in 2034
- 6. Disease Background and Overview
- 6.1. Introduction
- 6.2. Genomic Alterations and Key Pathways
- 6.3. Classification of HNSCC
- 6.4. Signs and Symptoms
- 6.5. Causes
- 6.6. Types of HPV in HNSCC
- 6.7. Diagnosis
- 6.8. Diagnostic Tools and Applied Algorithm in HNSCC Classification
- 6.9. HPV Biomarkers in Body Fluids
- 6.1. Differential Diagnosis
- 6.11. Staging
- 6.12. Diagnosis Algorithm
- 7. Epidemiology and Patient Population
- 7.1. Key Findings
- 7.1. Assumptions and Rationale
- 7.2. Total Incident Cases of HNSCC in the 7MM
- 7.3. HPV+ HNSCC Cases in the 7MM
- 7.4. Total Incident Cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in the 7MM
- 7.5. The United States
- 7.5.1. Total Incident Cases of HNSCC in the United States
- 7.5.2. Site-specific Cases of HNSCC in the United States
- 7.5.3. Total Incident Cases of HPV+ HNSCC in the United States
- 7.5.4. Total Incident Cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in the United States
- 7.5.5. Stage-specific Cases of HPV16+ OPSCC in the United States
- 7.5.6. Stage-specific Cases of HPV16+ Non-OPSCC in the United States
- 7.6. EU4 and the UK
- 7.6.1. Total Incident Cases of HNSCC in EU4 and the UK
- 7.6.2. Site-specific Cases of HNSCC in EU4 and the UK
- 7.6.3. Total Incident Cases of HPV+ HNSCC in EU4 and the UK
- 7.6.4. Total Incident Cases of HPV16-Positive HNSCC in EU4 and the UK
- 7.6.5. Stage-specific Cases of HPV16+ OPSCC in EU4 and the UK
- 7.6.6. Stage-specific Cases of HPV16+ Non-OPSCC in EU4 and the UK
- 7.7. Japan
- 7.7.1. Total Incident Cases of HNSCC in Japan
- 7.7.2. Site-specific Cases of HNSCC in Japan
- 7.7.3. Total Incident Cases of HPV+ HNSCC in Japan
- 7.7.4. Total Incident Cases of HPV16-Positive in Japan
- 7.7.5. Stage-specific Cases of HPV16+ OPSCC in Japan
- 7.7.6. Stage-specific Cases of HPV16+ Non-OPSCC in Japan
- 8. Appendix
- 8.1. Bibliography
- 8.2. Report Methodology
- 9. DelveInsight Capabilities
- 10. Disclaimer
- 11. About DelveInsight
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