BMI View: We expect Syrian defence expenditure to register positive growth over the coming years,although overall levels will remain low on a global comparison, as dire economic conditions limit fundingavailable for procurement and operations. As the country does not maintain a significant domestic defenceindustry (and investment into the development of local military manufacturing capabilities is unlikely to beforthcoming amid the ongoing war), we expect the government to remain wholly reliant on foreign allies fordefence imports for the foreseeable future.
Since the beginning of 2017, we have seen some notable positive developments towards resolution inSyria, including a reduction in overall levels of violence since forces loyal to President Assad recapturedAleppo in December 2016 - after which a nationwide ceasefire was implemented. The diplomatic processin Astana, led by Russia, Turkey and Iran also resumed, while UN-brokered talks in Geneva have alsotaken place.
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