Romania Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI View: We expect Romania's defence budget to increase, both in absolute terms and as a share ofGDP, in the next five years. This growth will be driven by the rising tensions in the Black Sea region, asRussia's increasingly aggressive stance in Ukraine and Moldova is prompting Romania to speed up theprocess of modernisation of its armed forces. Modernisation will initially focus on new equipment andstrengthening of capabilities for the army; creating opportunities for local suppliers, which manufacture arange of equipment in the ground segment. Over the longer term, we expect to see procurement of moretechnologically advanced equipment in other segments, such as aircraft, which will allow foreigncompanies to capture a greater share of the market.
Russia's aggressive stance on Ukraine, as well as its position on the Moldovan breakaway region ofTransnistria, are raising security concerns in Romania. This situation, coupled with Bucharest's recentpledge to strengthen the capabilities of Romania's armed forces, will drive an increase in the country'sdefence spending over the coming years. We expect Romanian defence expenditure to rise to USD2.9bnin 2016. This will bring the defence budget back to pre-financial crisis levels, representing a 1.8% shareof GDP (compared to 1.5% in 2015).
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