Poland is undertaking a series of reforms in line with the recommendations of its 2016 StrategicDefence Review. This review had reiterated the perceived scale and imminence of the threat of Russia, theneed to accelerate the country's procurement process and to expand the size of the military. In light of thiswe forecast substantial increases in Polish defence expenditure over the coming years, as Warsawcontinues its armed forces modernisation programme. Military spending will likely be kept above theNATO-stipulated 2.0% of GDP with a target of increasing spending significantly by 2030. NATO hasdeployed a US-led battlegroup to Poland and Poland secured an agreement to host the US Patriot antiballisticmissile system. While Poland will remain dependent on imports to meet many of its armed forces'requirements for the foreseeable future, we expect the country's overall defence trade deficit to graduallynarrow, as local military manufacturing capabilities strengthen. Poland's Ministry of Defence is acquiringgreater powers to speed up procurements, make greater initial contract payments and to determinespending on individual projects.