Mexico Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI View: There has been a significant improvement in the anti-narcotics campaign with the arrest anddeaths of several drug cartel leaders and officials. Some of the largest cartels have suffered losses and thecampaign has received considerable praise. Nonetheless, civil unrest is likely to escalate in the short tomedium term due to both corruption and cartel violence. While the defence budget is now tied to GDP, andis thus unlikely to fall relative to other elements of government expenditure; the peso's loss of value,combined with other macroeconomic factors, is likely to hold down any big ticket procurement items in theshort term. From 2016 to 2019, the defence budget will count for just 0.5% of Mexico's GDP.
Despite the success of the anti-narcotics campaign in recent years with the arrest and deaths of several drugcartels and officials, the drug war continues to intensify and become even more brutal as new organizationsare forming to fill the void. Because of the ongoing support of both the Mexican government and the US,the campaign against the cartels will not see gang violence become a long-term issue, but the campaigncould easily mean a temporary increase in spending on reconnaissance and intelligence equipment.
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