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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2013


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Now in its seventh edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 adds even more value as a critical research tool by exploring a much-discussed but little-understood side of the market: children’s e-books. In a pair of nationally representative surveys administered in February and August in 2012 that you just can’t get anywhere else, Simba answers the pressing questions pertaining to this segment: What percentage of adults buy children’s and YA books, and in what format are they buying them? How do e-book buyers and iPad owners view the intersection between children and reading, and what extent do they buy digital children’s books? And finally, how many are buying children’s and YA print and e-books to read for themselves?  

With more than three decades worth of wisdom pertaining to the children’s and YA market, Simba examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens, as well as an in-depth look at format trends.  In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores. 

This exclusive statistics and analysis in this report include:  
Proprietary data on children’s e-book adoption levels, as well as exclusive e-book user and iPad owner trend data.
Analysis of the bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not. 
Exhaustive demographic review of adult buyers of children’s/YA books
Multi-year results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country, which rate different books and genres as well as profiling buyer and retail trends.   
Category trends for 15 major juvenile categories with five or more years of data. 
Projections on the children’s/YA market size through 2014

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 also includes profiles of bestseller performance and financial estimates for companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster. 

This report is the tool to truly understand where the children’s/YA book market truly stands in today’s world of shifting consumer tastes and increased digital book adoption, as well as understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, benchmarking performance, planning short- and long-term growth strategies, and anticipating what comes next. 

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2013 is essential for book and e-book retailers, publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts,  and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s and YA trade book publishing industry.

The primary author of each of the past seven editions of this report is Simba senior trade book analyst Michael Norris, who has been tapped by the New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today and other publications to discuss industry trends and digital issues in the adult and children's publishing markets. Get this firsthand intelligence at your fingertips to understand buyer habits, the significance of series, and the e-book adoption history of the children’s/YA market today. 


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Overview of the U.S.Children's/YA Book Market and Buyer Demographics
    • Introduction
    • Who Are the Buyers?
      • Table How Common are the Following Children's/YA Book Buyers? (percentage of respondents)
      • Table When Parent(s) or Adults are Buying a Children's/YA Book, Who Is It Usually?
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults With Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Children's Book Buyer Demographics
      • Table Describe the Gender Mix of Children's/YA Book Buyers at Your Store
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Region
      • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Kind of Residence
      • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Children's Consumers by Marital Status
      • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Household Children Population
      • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household
      • Table Children's Book Buyers: Key Statistics and Demographics
  • Trends in Children's/YA Book Publishing
    • Introduction
      • Children's/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: Revenue Trends
        • Table Growth Trends in Juvenile Trade, Adult Trade and E-Books (2009-2011) (in 000,000)
    • Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
      • Table Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2012 vs. 2011
      • Table 4th Graders (9-10-year-olds) Reading Habits (2002-2011)
      • Table 8th Graders (13-14-year-olds) Reading Habits (2002-2011)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buyers of Books by Age Group (2010-2012)
    • Trends in Children's/YA E-Book Adoption
      • Table Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases (February 2012)
      • Table Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (February 2012)
      • Table Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (All Adults, E-Book users and iPad Owners) Any Agree, 2012
      • Table Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases: All Adults (August 2012)
      • Table Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases: iPad Owners and E-Book Users (August 2012)
      • Table Print: Why Did You Buy a Children's/YA Print Book? (August 2012)
      • Table Digital: Why Did You Buy A Children's/YA Digital Title? (August 2012)
    • The Value of Series
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012
    • Success Still Consolidated
      • Table Average Bestselling Titles per Author (2008-2012)
    • Trade Paperback Still The Leading Format
      • Table What Format of Children's/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2012?
    • TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important
      • Table Top 10 Trade Categories (2007-2011)
      • Table How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children's Books in Terms of How They Sell? (7=best; 1=worst)
    • Retailer and `Intermediaries' Relationships and Influence Changing
    • Teen Book Market Cooling Slightly; Tween Books Rise
      • Table Children's Titles by Age Range on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
      • Table When Looking at Children's and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
  • Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
    • Introduction
      • Table No. of New Children's/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2012
    • New York Times Series Bestsellers
      • Table Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 49 total)
      • Table Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 47 total)
      • Table Top 20 New York Times Series Imprints, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 30 total)
    • USA Today Bestsellers
      • Bestselling Books, Authors, Imprints and Categories
      • Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
        • Table Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 204 total)
        • Table Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 120 total)
        • Table Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 58 total)
        • Table Top 20 NYT & USA Today Bestsellers, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 419 total)
        • Table Top 20 NYT & USA Today Authors, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 228 total)
      • New Titles
      • Bestselling Authors
      • Leading Imprints
        • Table Top 20 NYT & USA Today Imprints, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 90 total)
        • Table Leading Children's Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2010-June 2012 (sorted by total ranking)
    • Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title
      • Table Comparison of Publishers, July 2011-June 2012 (sorted by total ranking)
  • Market Sizing and Forecasts
    • Introduction
      • Table Scholastic Revenue, FY2001-2012 (in millions of U.S. dollars)
    • Leading Children's Publishers
      • Candlewick
      • Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
      • HarperCollins
      • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
      • Macmillan
      • Penguin Group (USA)
      • Random House
      • Scholastic
      • Simon & Schuster
    • Size of the Children's Publishing Market
      • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2010-2014P (in billions)
    • Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue
      • Table Leading Children's Publishers, 2009-2014P ($ in millions)
    • Forecast for Balance of 2012 and Beyond
    • January-April Comparisons (2012-2011)
      • Table AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Net Sales ($ in millions)
      • Table AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Returns ($ in millions)
  • Category Trends
    • Introduction
    • The Top Categories
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009 (out of 61 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 66 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011 (out of 71 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 66 total)
    • USA Today Bestseller Data
    • Children's Titles vs. All Titles Released
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 45 total)
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011 (out of 50 total)
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011-June 2012 (out of 56 total)
      • Table New Children's/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2007-2011
    • Children's/YA Category Analysis
      • Table Select Category Ratings, Seven-Year Overview (ranked alphabetically)
    • Action & Adventure
      • Table Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
    • Animals
      • Table Animals Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Animals
    • Family & Relationships
      • Table Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
    • Fantasy
      • Table Fantasy Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Fantasy
    • Graphic Novel
      • Table Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel*
    • History
      • Table History Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - History
    • Horror
      • Table Horror Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Horror
    • Horror & Ghost
      • Table Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
    • Humor
      • Table Humor Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Humor
    • People & Places
      • Table People & Places Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - People & Places
    • Religion
      • Table Religion Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Religion
    • Schools & Education
      • Table Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
    • Science Fiction
      • Table Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
    • Social Issues
      • Table Social Issues Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Social Issues
    • Social Science
      • Table Social Science Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics - Social Science
  • Distribution and Retail Sales
    • Introduction
    • Where Books Are Being Purchased
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends (No. of adults in 000)
      • Table Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
    • Mass Merchandisers and Children's Book Retailing
      • Table Bestselling Children's Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2012
    • Barnes & Noble
      • Table Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2007-2011 ($ in 000)
    • Books-A-Million
      • Table Books-A-Million Revenue Allocation (2012-2011)
      • Table Bookstore Chains' Operating Performance, 2007-2012 ($ in millions)
      • Table Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2007-2012 ($ in millions)
      • Table Bookstore Chains' Operating Performance, 2007-2012 ($ in millions)
    • Operating Performance at the Big Two Chains
    • Superstores and Small-Format Store Closings
      • Table Number of Superstore Outlets, 2007-2011
    • Online Bookselling
    • Amazon.com
    • Barnes & Noble and Books-A-Million
      • Table Amazon's Media Sales vs. Electronics Sales As a Percentage of Total Sales, Q12007-Q12012
    • Channel Breakdown for All Buyers vs. Children's Book Buyers
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer (No. of adults in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer (No. of adults in 000)
    • Attitudes and Opinions about Shopping Among Children's Book Buyers
      • Table Overview of U.S. Adults and Children's Book Buyers: Attitudes and Opinions on Shopping (Any Agree) (in 000)
  • Forecasts and Conclusions
    • Conclusions
      • Table Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child's Reading Habits
    • Other Recommendations:
      • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2010-2014P (in billions)
  • Profiles of Leading Children's Book Publishers
    • Candlewick Press
    • Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Hachette Book Group
    • HarperCollins Publishers
    • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • Macmillan
    • Penguin Group (USA)
    • Random House Inc.
    • Scholastic Corp.
    • Simon & Schuster Inc.

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