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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2011


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Now in its fifth edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 offers an accurate and objective perspective on where the market for children’s books is headed in 2011, as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are publishers battling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock from retailers, and the intensifying battle for shelf space?

The overwhelming successes of children’s book series in recent years such as Harry Potter, Captain Underpants and Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight have sent publishers scrambling to uncover the next multi-title blockbuster craze. In addition, bestselling individual titles of rapidly growing genres like graphic novels have illuminated the children’s book market as a lucrative space for publishers, editors, marketers, distributors and retailers in the trade book industry. What’s more, the nuances of children’s books compared to “young adult” titles needs to be better understood by everyone in the industry value chain.

Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’s team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:

  • An in-depth look at bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
  • Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books.
  • Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.
  • Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Disney Publishing Worldwide, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2011 is essential for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry today.

Simba senior trade book analyst Michael Norris has been tapped by the New York Times, TIME and USA Today to discuss industry trends and bestseller data for the adult and children's publishing markets. Have this firsthand intelligence at your fingertips to understand buyer habits, the significance of series, and where the strengths and weaknesses lie for the top imprints in trade book publishing today.


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Overview of the U.S.Children's Book Market And Buyer Demographics
    • Table Cell Phone Content Allocation For Children
    • Table Who Is Buying Most of the Children's/YA Titles in Your Store?
    • Table When parent(s) or Adults are buying a Children's/YA book, who is it usually?
    • Table Who is the second most likely adult buying Children's/YA books at your store?
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults With Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Table Describe the Gender Mix of Children's/YA Book Buyers at Your Store
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Gender
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Occupation
    • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Adults, Parents and Grandparents
    • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Comic Consumers by Marital Status
    • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household
    • Trends in Children's Book Publishing
      • Table Growth in Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade (in 000)
      • Table Bookstores: How Do You Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile in 2010 vs. 2009?
      • Table Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
      • Table Average Amount of Time Spent Reading Print Media (Books)
      • Table A Day In The Life of an 8-18-Year-Old Media Consumer
      • Table Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009 (Titles within the top 25 of Amazon and Sony bestseller lists)
      • Table Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010 (Titles within the top 25 of Amazon and Sony bestseller lists)
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
      • Table Stephenie Meyer's Twilight Series by Consolidated Rating, July 2008-December 2009
      • Table Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-FY2009 (in millions of U.S. dollars)
      • Table Average Bestselling Titles per Author
      • Table What Format of Children's/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010?
      • Table What Format of Children's/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010?
      • Table Top 10 Trade Categories, 2005-2009
      • Table How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children's Books in Terms of How They Sell? (7=best; 1=worst)
      • Table Children's Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
      • Table When Looking at Children's and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
      • Table What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children's/YA Titles Found?
  • Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
    • Table No. of New Children's/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2010
    • Table Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 45 total)
    • Table Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 38 total)
    • Table Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2010-June 2011 (out of 23 total)
    • Table Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 211 total)
    • Table Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 99 total)
    • Table Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 69 total)
    • Table Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009 (out of 212 total)
    • Table Top 20 Authors, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 195 total)
    • Table Top 20 Imprints, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 82)
    • Table Leading Children's Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2008-June 2010 (sorted by total ranking)
    • Table Comparison of Publishers, July 2009-June 2010 (sorted by total ranking)
  • Market Sizing and Forecasts
    • Table Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
    • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2006-2011P (in billions)
    • Table Leading Children's Publishers, 2008-2012P ($ in millions)
    • Table AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Net Sales ($ in millions)
    • Table AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Returns ($ in millions)
  • Category Trends
    • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008 (out of 66 total)
    • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009 (out of 61 total)
    • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 66 total)
    • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009 (out of 51 total)
    • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010 (out of 45 total)
    • Table New Children's/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2005-2009
    • Table Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview (ranked alphabetically)
    • Table Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
    • Table Animals Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Animals
    • Table Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
    • Table Fantasy Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Fantasy
    • Table Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
    • Table History Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - History
    • Table Horror Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Horror
    • Table Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
    • Table Humor Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Humor
    • Table People & Places Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - People & Places
    • Table Religion Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Religion
    • Table Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
    • Table Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
    • Table Social Issues Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Social Issues
    • Table Social Science Bestseller Performance
    • Table Vital Statistics - Social Science
  • Distribution and Retail Sales
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends (No. of adults in 000)
    • Table Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
    • Table Bestselling Children's Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2010
    • Table Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2005-2009 ($ in 000)
    • Table Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2005-2009 ($ in millions)
    • Table Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008 ($ in millions)
    • Table Number of Superstore Outlets, 2005-2009
    • Table Amazon's North American Media Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales, 2002-2009
    • Table Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2005-2009 ($ in millions)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer (No. of adults in 000)
    • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel Exclusivity by Type of Book Buyer (No. of adults in 000)
  • Forecasts and Conclusions
    • Table Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child's Reading Habits
    • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2007-2011P (in billions)
  • Profiles of Leading Children's Book Publishers
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Candlewick Press
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Candlewick
    • Table Candlewick Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Table Disney Publishing Worldwide/Hyperion Books for Children Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Hachette Book Group
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Hachette Book Group
    • Table Hachette Book Group Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: HarperCollins Publishers
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: HarperCollins Children's Books
    • Table HarperCollins Children's Books Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Trade & Reference
    • Table Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data:
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Macmillan*
    • Table Macmillan Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Penguin Group (USA)
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Penguin Group (USA)
    • Table Penguin Group USA Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Random House
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Random House
    • Table Random House Children's Books Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Scholastic
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Scholastic
    • Table Scholastic Bestseller Performance, July 2009-June 2010
    • Table Consolidated Bestseller Data: Simon & Schuster
    • Table Publisher Snapshot: Simon & Schuster
    • Table Simon & Schuster Children's Books Bestseller Performance, July 2009 - June 2010

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